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By taking over the operations of the Wagner Group after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia loses the plausible deniability of Wagner’s irregular and illegal actions central to expanding Russian influence.
The Russia-Africa Summit provides a stage for Russia to elevate its geostrategic posture despite the instability its irregular tactics are creating in Africa.
In the wake of the recent short-lived mutiny, Putin faces a dilemma: He can allow the Wagner escapades to continue in Africa unhindered—thereby generating further influence and some resources for the government—or he can attempt to take over these operations but lose the influence and benefits Wagner brings the Kremlin.
Systematic efforts by Russia to undercut democracy in Africa have inhibited democratic development in two dozen African countries.
Russia has systematically sought to undercut democracy in Africa, both to normalize authoritarianism as well as to create an entry point for Russian influence.
While Russia has little to offer Africa economically, the political incentives for Moscow to engage on the continent have only grown stronger following its invasion of Ukraine.
With few enduring ties on the continent, the strategy that Vladimir Putin settled on early for Africa was to be a disruptor—in line with his vision of a multipolar international system. Russia's focus would be anti-Western, anti-democratic, counter–colored revolutions, and, over time, anti-UN.
Russia has deployed the shadowy paramilitary outfit, the Wagner Group, in at least a half dozen African countries in recent years, leaving a wake of instability for the citizens of the host country and the further retrenchment of illiberal actors.
Moscow is trying to gain influence in Africa without investing in it, a strategy that can only gain traction if certain African leaders see Russia as a means to validate their own hold on power regardless of popular will.
Russia’s irregular means of gaining influence in Africa are destabilizing for the continent and disenfranchising for African citizens.
The application of a Russian-shaped international order in Africa would have destabilizing repercussions for the continent.
The pushback in African states against state capture is simultaneously a push for better governance. Putin’s vision for Africa, in contrast, is a return to big man rule – where the big man is in Moscow.