The Sahel

Islamist fighters race near the Mauritania-Mali border

Islamist fighters in Mali. (Photo: Magharebia)

The Sahel has seen the most rapid growth in violent extremist activity of any region in Africa over the past two years. The region is also a nexus of criminal networks and illicit trafficking and has experienced a rise in farmer-herder violence. The Sahel, moreover, has the fastest population growth rate on the continent, despite being among the poorest and facing some of the most fragile environmental conditions. Consequently, migrants from the Sahel constitute a significant share of those trying to cross the Mediterranean into Europe. All the while, emerging democratic institutions are trying to gain traction in the region. Here is a selection of Africa Center work on the region.

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Mapping a Surge of Disinformation in Africa

March 13, 2024

Disinformation campaigns seeking to manipulate African information systems have surged nearly fourfold since 2022, triggering destabilizing and antidemocratic consequences.

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Assessing Mali’s Non-Transition

February 2, 2024

The Malian military junta has repeatedly refused to honor its commitments to transition back to a democratic civilian government, resulting in mounting security and economic costs to citizens.

Detail of the Map of Militant Islamist Group Activity in Africa in 2024

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Deaths Linked to Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Continue to Spiral

January 29, 2024

Fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence jumped by 20 percent in 2023, claiming more than 23,000 lives—a new record. Over 80 percent of these deaths were in the Sahel and Somalia.

Spotlight

Chad’s Constitutional Referendum Promises a Transition without Change—or Stability

By Daniel Eizenga and Katie Nodjimbadem
November 28, 2023

The highly controlled constitutional referendum organized by Mahamat Déby’s military junta appears intended to provide a degree of credibility to the military’s plans to hold power indefinitely.

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Burkina Faso Crisis Continues to Spiral

August 29, 2023

Following two military coups d’état in 2022, militant Islamist groups in Burkina Faso have moved to encircle Ouagadougou leaving a trail of unprecedented violence in their wake.

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African Militant Islamist Group-Linked Fatalities at All-Time High

July 31, 2023

A 50-percent spike in fatalities tied to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel and Somalia over the past year has eclipsed the previous high in 2015 when Boko Haram was at its most lethal phase.

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Attempted Coup in Niger: Backgrounder

July 27, 2023

The attempted military coup in Niger threatens to undermine the relative progress the country has made under its civilian democratic leaders and amplifies Niger’s risks for insecurity, economic crises, and political instability.

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Mali Catastrophe Accelerating under Junta Rule

July 10, 2023

The threat of militant Islamist groups is spreading to all parts of Mali as the military junta stakes its claim to stay in power indefinitely.

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Malian Military Junta Scuttles Security Partnerships while Militant Violence Surges

February 27, 2023

The military junta in Mali has alienated regional and international security partners amid escalating violence by militant Islamist groups, leading to a spike in civilian fatalities.

Map of Militant Islamist Group Activity in 2022

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Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent

February 6, 2023

Continuing a decade-long upward trend, violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa increased by 22 percent while fatalities surged by 48 percent over the past year.

“Non-Transition” Orchestrated by Chad’s Military Government Goes Awry

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“Transition” Orchestrated by Chad’s Military Goes Awry

By Daniel Eizenga
November 15, 2022

The violent crackdown on the peaceful opposition in Chad exposes the coercive intimidation behind the military junta’s unwillingness to facilitate a genuine democratic transition.

Understanding Burkina Faso’s Latest Coup

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Understanding Burkina Faso’s Latest Coup

October 28, 2022

Two coups d’état in 9 months mark the latest inflection point in Burkina Faso’s political instability, causing heightened uncertainty as the country faces an escalating militant Islamist threat.

Five Zones of Militant Islamist Violence in the Sahel

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Five Zones of Militant Islamist Violence in the Sahel

September 26, 2022

The deterioration of the security environment in the western Sahel is marked by an array of differing actors, drivers, and motivations, calling for contextualized responses.

Mali’s Militant Islamist Insurgency at Bamako’s Doorstep

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Mali’s Militant Islamist Insurgency at Bamako’s Doorstep

August 29, 2022

Militant Islamist group violence is accelerating in Mali, advancing a complex insurgency in north, central, and increasingly southern Mali that further threatens the country’s stability.

ASB41EN Strengthening Sahelian Counterinsurgency Capacity

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Strengthening Sahelian Counterinsurgency Strategy

By Michael Shurkin
July 25, 2022

Adapting Sahelian force structures to lighter, more mobile, and integrated units will better support the population-centric COIN practices needed to reverse the escalating trajectory of violent extremist attacks.

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Record 36 Million Africans Forcibly Displaced

July 19, 2022

Conflict continues to drive Africa’s record levels of population displacement. Africa’s 36 million forcibly displaced persons represent 44 percent of the global total.

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Mapping Disinformation in Africa

April 26, 2022

Russia has pioneered a model of disinformation to gain political influence in Africa that is now being replicated by other actors across the continent.

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Debunking the Malian Junta’s Claims

April 12, 2022

Mali’s military coup has thrust the country into a deeper security crisis as the junta quashes dissent and resists a democratic transition.

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The Growing Threat of Violent Extremism in Coastal West Africa

By Leif Brottem
March 15, 2022

Sahelian militant Islamist groups are threatening border areas of littoral states where grievances held by pastoralist communities may provide an entry point for extremist interests.

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Trajectories of Violence Against Civilians by Africa’s Militant Islamist Groups

By Anouar Boukhars
February 8, 2022

Extremist group violence against civilians is driven by context-specific factors—outgroup grievances, intimidation to control territory, and a response to heavy-handed security responses—that require enhanced community-level mitigation and military professionalism.

Surge in Militant Islamist Violence in the Sahel Dominates Africa’s Fight against Extremists

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Surge in Militant Islamist Violence in the Sahel Dominates Africa’s Fight against Extremists

January 24, 2022

A 70-percent annual increase in violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel propelled a new record of extremist violence in Africa in 2021.

A Crucial Moment in Chad’s Transition

Spotlight

A Crucial Moment in Chad’s Transition

By Daniel Eizenga
December 17, 2021

Chad's national dialogue will not achieve stability or peace as long as those who support civilian rule and civilian transition continue to be excluded from the transition.

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What the Post-Coup Agreement Means for Sudan’s Democratic Transition

By Joseph Siegle
November 24, 2021

Sudan’s democratic transition is under duress as the military seeks validation for its hold on power via the reinstatement of a figurehead civilian prime minister.

Russia's Wagner Play Undermines the Transition in Mali

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Russia’s Wagner Play Undermines the Transition in Mali

By Joseph Siegle and Daniel Eizenga
September 23, 2021

The prospective deployment of Russia’s Wagner mercenaries should not be confused with addressing Mali’s security situation but is a means of expanding Russian influence while propping up the military junta.

The Growing Complexity of Farmer-Herder Conflict in West and Central Africa

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The Growing Complexity of Farmer-Herder Conflict in West and Central Africa

By Leif Brottem
July 12, 2021

The rise of farmer-herder violence in Africa is more pernicious than fatality figures alone since it is often amplified by the emotionally potent issues of ethnicity, religion, culture, and land.

Chad’s Ongoing Instability, the Legacy of Idriss Déby

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Chad’s Ongoing Instability, the Legacy of Idriss Déby

By Daniel Eizenga
May 3, 2021

Idriss Déby’s death is an outcome of the ongoing instability perpetuated by his regime. The subsequent military coup d’état led by the late president’s son risks deepening political violence in this geographically strategic country.

Spike in Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Underscores Shifting Security Landscape

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Spike in Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Underscores Shifting Security Landscape

January 29, 2021

A surge of violent events by militant Islamist groups in Africa, led by escalations in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, sets record and widens instability.

Islamic State in the Greater Sahara Expanding Its Threat and Reach in the Sahel

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Islamic State in the Greater Sahara Expanding Its Threat and Reach in the Sahel

December 18, 2020

Violence linked to the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) more than doubled in the past year. Concentrated along the Burkina Faso-Niger-Mali border areas, ISGS events target civilians nearly half the time.

The Puzzle of JNIM and Militant Islamist Groups in the Sahel

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The Puzzle of JNIM and Militant Islamist Groups
in the Sahel

By Daniel Eizenga and Wendy Williams
December 1, 2020

Composed of distinct operational entities, the militant Islamist group coalition Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen serves the role of obscuring the operations of its component parts in the Sahel, thereby inhibiting a more robust response.

The Legacy of Military Governance in Mali

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The Legacy of Military Governance in Mali

September 25, 2020

After leading a coup against a democratically elected government, junta leader Colonel Assimi Goïta has attempted to rehabilitate the image of military government in Mali.

Spotlight

Mali: Beware the ‘Popular’ Coup

By Joseph Siegle and Daniel Eizenga
August 30, 2020

Rationalizing a coup because people are in the streets overlooks the reality that nearly every coup is greeted enthusiastically by some. ‘Popular support’ for the coup in Mali has masked a politicized military, opportunistic opposition figures, and Russian meddling.

Keeping Terrorism at Bay in Mauritania

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Keeping Terrorism at Bay in Mauritania

By Anouar Boukhars
June 16, 2020

Mauritania’s security reforms, including training, enhanced mobility, Special Forces, prudent procurement, and community engagement have strengthened its capability to confront violent extremist groups.

Understanding Fulani Perspectives on the Sahel Crisis

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Understanding Fulani Perspectives on the Sahel Crisis

By Modibo Ghaly Cissé
April 22, 2020

The disproportionate representation of Fulani in militant Islamist groups in the Sahel has led to the stigmatization of the entire Fulani community. Reversing this will require renewed outreach and trust-building between Fulani leaders, government authorities, and neighboring communities.

Chadian soldiers in Bosso, Niger

Spotlight

Chad’s Escalating Fight against Boko Haram

By Daniel Eizenga
April 20, 2020

A rise in Boko Haram and ISWA attacks in Chad has been met with a military surge to clear the area. Enduring success will require a sustained presence and an intensified regional commitment.

Spotlight

How Violent Extremist Groups Exploit Intercommunal Conflicts in the Sahel

By Laurence-Aïda Ammour
February 26, 2020

Rising violence by militant Islamist groups in the Sahel is straining intercommunal tensions, threatening the foundations of social cohesion in the region.

Mali soldiers in Gao

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Responding to the Rise in Violent Extremism in the Sahel

By Pauline Le Roux
December 2, 2019

Reversing the escalating violence of militant Islamist groups in the Sahel will require an enhanced security presence coupled with more sustained outreach to local communities.

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Strategies for Peace and Security in the Sahel

September 27, 2019

The Sahel is the African region that has seen the most rapid growth in violent extremist activity over the past 2 years. Ambassadors of the G-5 Sahel countries and leading experts examine the drivers and responses to the region's security challenges.

Réduire la violence entre agriculteurs et éleveurs au Mali

Spotlight

Mitigating Farmer-Herder Violence in Mali

August 8, 2019

The confluence between farmer-herder violence, ethnicity, and extremist groups requires a multitiered response emphasizing a people-centric approach.

Ansaroul Islam militants in northern Burkina Faso, date unknown. (Image: Screen capture from video obtained by Héni Nsaibia from source in Mali)

Spotlight

Ansaroul Islam: The Rise and Decline of a Militant Islamist Group in the Sahel

By Pauline Le Roux
July 29, 2019

Burkina Faso’s first militant Islamist group, Ansaroul Islam, has faced setbacks, pointing to the weaknesses of violent extremist organizations lacking deep local support and facing sustained pressure.

Spotlight

Exploiting Borders in the Sahel: The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara

By Pauline Le Roux
June 10, 2019

The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara has pursued breadth rather than depth of engagement in its rapid rise along the Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso borders.

EU Security Strategy in Sahel Focused on Security-Development Nexus

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EU Security Strategy in Sahel Focused on Security-Development Nexus

March 7, 2019

EU Special Representative to the Sahel Angel Losada Fernandez discusses Europe's security strategy in the region, which focuses on integrating development, security, and governance in coordination with African actors on the ground, in this interview with the Africa Center.

Security Responses in Sahel Map

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A Review of Major Regional Security Efforts in the Sahel

March 4, 2019

Increased attacks from militant Islamist groups in the Sahel coupled with cross-border challenges such as trafficking, migration, and displacement have prompted a series of regional and international security responses.

Confronting Central Mali’s Extremist Threat

Spotlight

Confronting Central Mali’s Extremist Threat

By Pauline Le Roux
February 22, 2019

The Macina Liberation Front has opportunistically played on perceptions of ethnic, economic, religious, and political marginalization to become one of the most active militant Islamist groups in Mali.

The Complex and Growing Threat of Militant Islamist Groups in the Sahel

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The Complex and Growing Threat of Militant Islamist Groups in the Sahel

February 15, 2019

The escalation of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel reflects an array of diverse actors operating within distinct geographic concentrations.

Progress and Setbacks in the Fight against African Militant Islamist Groups in 2018

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Progress and Setbacks in the Fight against African Militant Islamist Groups in 2018

January 25, 2019

Declines in violent activity linked to Boko Haram and al Shabaab are balanced by increases in the Sahel, generating a mixed picture of the challenge posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.

The G5 Sahel Joint Force Gains Traction

Spotlight

The G5 Sahel Joint Force Gains Traction

February 9, 2018

The G5 Sahel is ramping up its joint security force in order to address the growing threat posed by militant Islamist groups in the Sahel. The Force is emerging as a focal point for transnational security efforts in the region.

A Fulani man herds cattle in northern Cameroon

Spotlight

Africa’s Pastoralists: A New Battleground for Terrorism

By Kaley Fulton and Benjamin P. Nickels
January 11, 2017

Islamist terrorist groups in the Sahel and Sahara are attempting to exploit pastoralist grievances to mobilize greater support for their agenda, write Kaley Fulton and Benjamin Nickels.

Sahrawi Insurgency Could Provide an Opening for AQIM

Spotlight

Sahrawi Insurgency Could Provide an Opening for AQIM

By Wendy Williams
June 15, 2016

The unfolding events between Morocco and Western Sahara could provide a sought-after opportunity for AQIM to reassert its relevance in the region.

Place nations unies, Ouagadougou

Spotlight

Terrorists Strike Burkina Faso: What are the Implications?

January 25, 2016

The terrorist attack on a luxury hotel in Ouagadougou is the second time in recent months that groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have conducted attacks of this type outside their base area. Benjamin Nickels assesses the significance of these attacks and steps that might be taken by Burkinabé authorities and their partners to address future threats.

Regional Security Cooperation in the Maghreb and Sahel Algerias Pivotal Ambivalence

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Regional Security Cooperation in the Maghreb and Sahel: Algeria’s Pivotal Ambivalence

By Laurence Aïda Ammour
February 28, 2012

Despite growing security concerns across the Sahel and Maghreb, regional security cooperation to address these transnational threats remains fragmented. Algeria is well-positioned to play a central role in defining this cooperation, but must first reconcile the complex domestic, regional, and international considerations that shape its decision-making.

Sifting Through the Layers of Insecurity in the Sahel: The Case of Mauritania

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Sifting Through the Layers of Insecurity in the Sahel: The Case of Mauritania

By Cédric Jourde
September 30, 2011

Increasing narcotrafficking and a more active Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb are elevating concerns over instability in the Sahel. However, the region’s threats are more complex than what is observable on the surface. Rather, security concerns are typically characterized by multiple, competing, and fluctuating interests at the local, national, and regional levels. Effectively responding to these threats requires in-depth understanding of the multiple contextual layers in which illicit actors operate.

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West Africa’s Growing Terrorist Threat: Confronting AQIM’s Sahelian Strategy

By Modibo Goïta
February 28, 2011

Counterterrorism efforts among Sahelian governments remain uncoordinated and too narrowly focused to contain and confront AQIM’s long-term and sophisticated strategy in the region. To prevent AQIM from further consolidating its presence in the Sahel, regional policies must be harmonized and security forces refocused so as to minimize collateral impacts on local communities.