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Shoring Up Stability: Addressing Climate and Fragility Risks in the Lake Chad Region

Recommended research   published by Janani Vivekananda, Martin Wall, Florence Sylvestre, Chitra Nagarajan, Adelphi on May 31, 2019

This climate-fragility risk assessment identifies the key drivers for future conflict drawing on hydrological data, satellite observations, and interviews across Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger. Dramatic changes in temperature and growing population density have added strain to the areas surrounding Lake Chad. Clearer land rights that allow farmers, fishermen, and pastoralists to use the same land would improve efficiency and reduce the risk of exacerbating conflict.

Tubu Trouble: State and Statelessness in the Chad-Sudan-Libya Triangle

Recommended research   published by Jerome Tubiana and Claudio Gramizzi, Small Arms Survey/HSB on June 30, 2017

The absence of state administration, both during the colonial period and since independence, defines this region. But when limited administration has existed, whether from the formal state or from various armed groups that operate there, it has been marked by continued competition over natural resources and land use between traditional chiefs, cross border traders, and rebel leaders. Inhabitants themselves have also played various roles in civil and proxy wars here. While a large economic development project failed to bring much needed assistance to the region, the recent discovery of gold has led both to conflicts and to newfound wealth.

Subverting Democracy in Tanzania and Zambia

Spotlight   published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies on September 17, 2019

Tanzania and Zambia’s slide toward authoritarianism reveals the weaknesses of existing checks and balances and undermines their reputation as models of democratic development.

Despots and Disruptions: Five Dimensions of Internet Shutdowns in Africa

Recommended research   published by Collaboration on International ICT Policy for East and Southern Africa (CIPESA) on March 18, 2019

African governments increasingly use internet disruptions as a tool to prevent information sharing and popular mobilization during elections or periods of conflict. In the first three weeks of 2019 alone, the governments of Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Sudan, and Zimbabwe blocked citizens’ access to the internet and social media. Over the last three years, governments in Africa that are less democratic or have been in power for the longest are more likely to order internet disruptions. All the African countries that have disrupted internet access in 2019 are authoritarian. Internet blackouts threaten election freedom and human rights and cause serious economic disruptions.

A Review of Major Regional Security Efforts in the Sahel

Infographic   published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies on March 4, 2019

Increased attacks from militant Islamist groups in the Sahel coupled with cross-border challenges such as trafficking, migration, and displacement have prompted a series of regional and international security responses.

Confronting Central Mali’s Extremist Threat

Spotlight   published by Pauline Le Roux on February 22, 2019

The Macina Liberation Front has opportunistically played on perceptions of ethnic, economic, religious, and political marginalization to become one of the most active militant Islamist groups in Mali.