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A 50-percent spike in fatalities tied to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel and Somalia over the past year has eclipsed the previous high in 2015 when Boko Haram was at its most lethal phase.
Russia has systematically sought to undercut democracy in Africa, both to normalize authoritarianism as well as to create an entry point for Russian influence.
Unaccountable regimes in Africa are highly vulnerable to exploitation by external authoritarian actors—at a heavy cost to citizen sovereignty.
China’s efforts to reshape existing global institutions and norms rely on the support of African governments, though this can often be at odds with African citizen interests.
While Russia has little to offer Africa economically, the political incentives for Moscow to engage on the continent have only grown stronger following its invasion of Ukraine.
China’s support for ruling parties undermines its ability to be an impartial arbiter of conflict resolution in the Horn of Africa and highlights China’s use of mediation to pursue its geostrategic interests.
TICAD’s bottom-up, multisectoral, and co-partnership approach is welcome in Africa and offers a model for the value of long-term partnerships to strengthen development, peace, and security.
Conflict continues to drive Africa’s record levels of population displacement. Africa’s 36 million forcibly displaced persons represent 44 percent of the global total.
Storms are increasing in frequency and intensity in Africa, exacerbating other socioeconomic stressors across the continent.
Loss of munitions and other lethal materiel from African armed forces and peace operations is a key factor sustaining militant groups driving instability on the continent.
Extremist group violence against civilians is driven by context-specific factors—outgroup grievances, intimidation to control territory, and a response to heavy-handed security responses—that require enhanced community-level mitigation and military professionalism.
The push-pull forces driving African migration continue to intensify, portending expanding African migration within and off the continent in 2022.