ARP No. 8: Shifting Borders: Africa’s Displacement Crisis and Its Security Implications

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By Wendy Williams

October 17, 2019

  1. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “World Population Prospects: The 2017 revision” (2017), custom data acquired via website.
  2. Michael J. Toole and Ronald J. Waldman, “Prevention of Excess Mortality in Refugee and Displaced Populations in Developing Countries,” Journal of the American Medical Association 263, no. 24 (1990), 3296-3302. See also “Famine Affected, refugee, and displaced populations: recommendations for public health issues,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 41, no. RR-13 (Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1992).
  3. United Nations Children’s Fund, “A Future Stolen: Young and out of school” (New York: UNICEF, 2018), 5.
  4. Constitutional Term Limits for African Leaders,” on the Infographics webpage of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies website, available at <>.
  5. United Nations, General Assembly, Report of the Commission of Inquiry on human rights in Eritrea, A/HRC/32/47 (May 9, 2016), para. 115.
  6. Peace and Corruption 2015: Lowering Corruption – A transformative Factor for Peace,” Institute for Economics and Peace (2015).
  7. Oluwakemi Okenyodo, “Governance, Accountability, and Security in Nigeria,” Africa Security Brief No. 31 (Washington, DC: Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2016).
  8. Lt. Col. Dave Allen, Will Cafferky, Abdallah Hendawy, Jordache Horn, Karolina MacLachlan, Stefanie Nijssen, Eleonore Vidal de la Blache, The Big Spin: Corruption and the growth of violent extremism (London: Transparency International, 2017). “Understanding Local Drivers of Violent Extremism in Tunisia,” International Republican Institute (Winter 2016). Eguiar Lizundia and Luke Waggoner, “To combat terrorism, tackle corruption fueling discontent,” Hill, March 28, 2018.
  9. Allen et al.
  10. Chris Horwood, Roberto Forin, and Bram Frouws, eds., “Mixed Migration Review 2018” (Geneva: Mixed Migration Centre, 2018), 79.
  11. Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), “Mixed Migration Flows in the Mediterranean and Beyond: Flow Monitoring Surveys,” IOM, June 2017, 6.
  12. Irregular migrants in vulnerable situations and access to basic services,” interview with Nando Singoa (video) on IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (IOM GMDAC) website.
  13. See United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2017 revision,” (2017). See also Assessment Capacities Project, “Migration in West and North Africa: Scenarios: Possible evolution of migration dynamics within and via West and North Africa to June 2019” (Geneva: ACAPS, November 2018), 5: “An estimated 25,000–100,000 undocumented migrants live in Algeria.”
  14. Giulia Spagna, “Weighing the Risks: Protection risks and human rights violations faced by migrants in and from East Africa,” RMMS Briefing Paper 5 (Oct 2017), 6. For 2018 data, see Mixed Migration Centre, “Quarterly Mixed Migration Update: East Africa & Yemen” (Quarter 1, 2019), 8.
  15. International Organization for Migration, , “A Region on the Move: 2018 Mobility Overview in the Horn of Africa and the Arab Peninsula,” May 2019.
  16. Gopolang Makou, “11 million undocumented migrants in SA? Police commissioner’s figure ‘doesn’t make sense,’” Africa Check, September 13, 2018.
  17. The Kenya Citizenship and Immigration Act, 2011, Part VI: Immigration Control, para. 53(j).
  18. Simone Haysom, “Where crime compounds conflict: Understanding northern Mozambique’s vulnerabilities” (Geneva: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, October 2018), 10.
  19. Spagna, 6.
  20. Laura Dixon, Pedro​ ​Noel, Andrea​ ​Arzaba, Sally​ ​Hayden, Mauro​ ​Pimentel, Selase​ ​Kove-Seyram, “The New Coyote Trail: Refugees Head West to Bypass Fortress Europe,” NewsDeeply, December 19, 2017.
  21. “Cuadro No. 001 Tránsito irregular de extranjeros por la frontera con Colombia por región según orden de importancia: Año 2010-2018,” from “Irregulares en tránsito frontera Panamá – Colombia 2010-2018” file under “Extrajeros con estatus irregular” of the Estadísticas webpage on the Servicio Nacional de Migración Panamá website.
  22. “Cuadro 3.1.2 Eventos de extranjeros presentados ante la autoridad migratoria, según continente, país de nacionalidad y entidad federativa, enero-diciembre de 2018,” under section “III. Extranjeros presentados y devueltos” of the 2018 Boletín estadístico anual webpage on the Government of Mexico website.
  23. Kanta Kumari Rigaud, Alex de Sherbinin, Bryan Jones, Jonas Bergmann, Viviane Clement, Kayly Ober, Jacob Schewe, Susana Adamo, Brent McCusker, Silke Heuser, and Amelia Midgley, “Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration” (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018).
  24. Justin Moat, Jenny Williams, Susana Baena, Timothy Wilkinson, Tadesse W. Gole, Zeleke K. Challa, Sebsebe Demissew, and Aaron P. Davis, “Resilience potential of the Ethiopian coffee sector under climate change,” Nature Plants 3, art. 17081 (2017).
  25. Michon Scott, “Climate & Chocolate,” February 10, 2016, on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website, citing Peter Läderach, A. Martinez-Valle, G. Schroth, and N. Castro, “Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world’s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire,” Climatic Change 119, no. 3-4 (2013), 841-854.
  26. Food Security and Climate Change Assessment: Sudan,” World Food Programme, December 2016.
  27. Ibid, 37.
  28. International Organization for Migration, Migration Initiatives 2015: Regional Strategies (Geneva: IOM, 2014). See also Schuyler Null and Lauren Herzer Risi, “Navigating Complexity: Climate, Migration, and Conflict in a Changing World,” Discussion Paper, Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars (November 2016). See also Sebastian van Baalen and Malin Mobjörk, “A coming anarchy? Pathways from climate change to violent conflict in East Africa” (Stockholm: Stockholm University, 2016).
  29. Christian Nellemann, R. Henriksen, Riccardo Pravettoni, D. Stewart, M. Kotsovou, M.A.J. Schlingemann, Mark Shaw, and Tuesday Reitano, eds., “World atlas of illicit flows. A RHIPTO-INTERPOL-GI Assessment” (Oslo: RHIPTO Norwegian Center for Global Analyses, 2018), 79.
  30. Nellemann et al., 92.
  31. In Libya, ISIS Is Using Human Trafficking to Finance Its Activities,” Al Shahid, February 11, 2018. Nellemann et al., 79. Mark Micallef, “The Human Conveyor Belt : Trends in human trafficking and smuggling in post-revolution Libya,” The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (March 2017), 35-36. See also “ISIS in Action: October 25, 2016,” Eye on ISIS in Libya website. See also “Islamic State militants ‘smuggled to Europe,’” BBC, May 17, 2015. See also “Libya: a growing hub for Criminal Economies and Terrorist Financing in the Trans-Sahara,” Policy Brief, The Global Initiative against Organized Crime, May 11, 2015.
  32. Nellemann et al., 79.
  33. OECD, “Illicit Financial Flows: The Economy of Illicit Trade in West Africa” (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2018).
  34. Nellemann et al., 78.
  35. Aamna Mohdin, “The economics of human smuggling makes it nearly impossible to stop,” Quartz, August 18, 2018.
  36. Micallef. See also Rebecca Radcliffe, “Refugees at high risk of kidnapping in Horn of Africa, research reveals,” Guardian, January 9, 2019.
  37. Human Trafficking and Smuggling on the Horn of Africa-Central Mediterranean Route,” Sahan Foundation and IGAD Security Sector Program (February 2016), 4.
  38. Mark Shaw and Fiona Mangan, “Illicit Trafficking and Libya’s Transition: Profits and Losses,” Peaceworks No. 96 (Washington, DC: USIP, 2014).
  39. Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, “Africa Report on Internal Displacement” (December 2017), 13, accessed at <>.
  40. World Bank, “Forcibly Displaced: Toward a Development Approach Supporting Refugees, the Internally Displaced, and Their Hosts” (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017), 25.
  41. Tariq Khokhar, “Chart: Most Refugees Don’t Live in Camps,” World Bank Data Blog on the World Bank website.
  42. The Migration Policy Framework for Africa, African Union Executive Council, Ninth Ordinary Session, June 25-29, 2006, Banjul, The Gambia (EX.CL/276(IX)); and the African Common Position on Migration and Development, African Union Executive Council, Ninth Ordinary Session, June 25-29, 2006, Banjul, The Gambia (EX.CL/277(IX)).
  43. Visa Openness Index, “Africa Visa Openness Report 2016” (Abidjan: African Development Bank, 2017), 20.
  44. Roni Amit, “Queue Here for Corruption: Measuring Irregularities In South Africa’s Asylum System,” Lawyers For Human Rights and The African Centre For Migration & Society (July 2015), 23.
  45. Landry Signé, “Africa’s big new free trade agreement, explained,” Monkey Cage (blog), Washington Post, March 29, 2018.
  46. Migration through the Mediterranean: Mapping the EU Response,” on the European Council on Foreign Relations website.
  47. A European Union Emergency Trust Fund for Africa,” European Commission press release, November 12, 2015.”
  48. “Migration through the Mediterranean.”
  49. John Ashworth, “Is the EU Financing Genocide in Sudan?” Roving Bandit (blog), September 27, 2016. See also “EU denies funding Sudanese militia to combat illegal migration,” Sudan Tribune, September 6, 2016.
  50. Sudan says it is combating illegal migration ‘on behalf of Europe,’Sudan Tribune, August 30, 2016.
  51. ‘Detained and dehumanised’ Report on human rights abuses against migrants in Libya,” United Nations Support Mission in Libya and Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (December 13, 2016).
  52. Charles Heller, Lorenzo Pezzani, Itamar Mann, Violeta Moreno-Lax, and Eyal Weizman, “‘It’s an Act of Murder’: How Europe Outsources Suffering as Migrants Drown,” New York Times, December 26, 2018.
  53. Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin, and Gaffar Mohammud Saeneen, “Multilateral Damage: The impact of EU migration policies on central Saharan routes” (The Hague: Clinengdael Institute, 2018), 36-53. See also Anne Koch, Annette Weber, Isabelle Werenfels, eds., “Profiteers of Migration? Authoritarian States in Africa and European Migration Management,” SWP Research Paper 4 (Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2018). See also Owen Bowcott, “ICC submission calls for prosecution of EU over migrant deaths,” Guardian, June 2, 2019.
  54. Alexander Betts, “Comprehensive Plans of Action: Insights from CIREFCA and the Indochinese CPA,” New Issues in Refugee Research Working Paper No. 120 (Geneva: UNHCR, 2006).
  55. W. Courtland Robinson, “The Comprehensive Plan of Action for Indochinese Refugees, 1989-1997: Sharing the Burden and Passing the Buck,” Journal of Refugee Studies 17, no. 3 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), 326.
  56. MERCOSUR Residence Agreement,” Good Practices database – migration policies and programmes webpage on the International Labour Organization website.
  57. Diego Acosta, “Free Movement in South America: The Emergence of an Alternative Model?” Migration Policy Institute (August 23, 2016).
  58. See Peace Chiu and Jeffie Lam, “Philippines delays ban on exterior window cleaning after Hong Kong government plea,” South China Morning Post, October 14, 2016.
  59. See “Current Peacekeeping Operations” and “Troop And Police Contributions” web pages on the United Nations Peacekeeping website. See also AMISOM website. See also “Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) against Boko Haram” under the Projects page of the Africa-EU Partnership website.
  60. Charles T. Call, “International Anti-Impunity Missions in Guatemala and Honduras: What Lessons for El Salvador?CLALS Working Paper Series No. 21 (Washington, DC: American University, 2019).
  61. See Mohamed Djirdeh Houssein, “Somalia: The Experience of Hawala Receiving Countries,” in Regulatory Frameworks for Hawala and Other Remittance Systems (Washington, DC: IMF, 2005), 87-94; “The role of Hawala and other similar service providers in money laundering and terrorist financing,” FATF Report (Paris: Financial Action Task Force, 2013); and FATF-GIABA-GABAC, “Terrorist Financing in West and Central Africa” (Paris: Financial Action Task Force, 2016).
  62. UNHCR appeals for more resettlement, end to detention as Libya evacuations near 2,500,” UNHCR press release, November 23, 2019. See also Adam Nossiter, “At French Outpost in African Migrant Hub, Asylum for a Select Few,” New York Times, February 25, 2018.
  63. Stephen Commins, “From Urban Fragility to Urban Stability,” Africa Security Brief No. 35 (Washington, DC: Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2018).

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