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African countries have played an overlooked role shaping the UN international system, remain committed to preserving and improving it, and oppose efforts to destabilize, dismantle, or overturn it.
The Russia-Africa Summit provides a stage for Russia to elevate its geostrategic posture despite the instability its irregular tactics are creating in Africa.
In the wake of the recent short-lived mutiny, Putin faces a dilemma: He can allow the Wagner escapades to continue in Africa unhindered—thereby generating further influence and some resources for the government—or he can attempt to take over these operations but lose the influence and benefits Wagner brings the Kremlin.
China’s expanded police engagements in Africa could have potentially far-reaching consequences for African security governance.
The conflict between Sudan’s rival military factions is triggering massive population displacements that are stressing the region’s already fragile coping systems. More than 13.3 million Sudanese have been displaced.
Russia has systematically sought to undercut democracy in Africa, both to normalize authoritarianism as well as to create an entry point for Russian influence.
China’s efforts to reshape existing global institutions and norms rely on the support of African governments, though this can often be at odds with African citizen interests.
Russia has deployed the shadowy paramilitary outfit, the Wagner Group, in at least a half dozen African countries in recent years, leaving a wake of instability for the citizens of the host country and the further retrenchment of illiberal actors.
Illegal logging is a growing feature of transnational organized crime in Africa, often facilitated by the collusion of senior officials, with far-reaching security and environmental implications for the countries affected.
Moscow is trying to gain influence in Africa without investing in it, a strategy that can only gain traction if certain African leaders see Russia as a means to validate their own hold on power regardless of popular will.
Russia’s irregular means of gaining influence in Africa are destabilizing for the continent and disenfranchising for African citizens.