What the Arab Spring Means for Sudan
By John Prendergast. The Enough Project, 2011. Significant changes shook Sudan in 2011 – multi-city protests erupted early in the year followed by the South’s secession in the summer. The regime in Khartoum also appears increasingly fractured over about how to handle emerging secessionists in the “new” south, revenue management, and other disagreements. These trends have amplified domestic and international calls for democratic reforms. However, any transition will depend on major advancements in Sudan’s opposition parties and civil society groups as well as a stronger willingness in the international community to take more decisive action against efforts by the regime to suppress activists. Download the Article: [PDF]Sudan: From Conflict to Conflict
By Marina Ottaway and Mai El-Sadany. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 2012. Less than a year after a partition that was meant to end a recurring decades-old conflict, Sudan and South Sudan were once again on the brink of full-scale war in 2012. Disputes over oil deposits and revenues were the proximate drivers of the fighting, but both governments also face worsening internal divisions, domestic rebellions, legitimacy deficits, and economic outlooks. These shortcomings reduce their authority and flexibility, and, paradoxically, raise the incentives for confronting one another. The prospects for interstate conflict will remain high, and maintaining peace will require persistent efforts by Sudanese and international actors to fully implement the remaining aspects of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005. Download the Article: [PDF]Division in Sudan’s Ruling Party and the Threat to the Country’s Future Stability
By International Crisis Group, May 2011.
Facing worsening instability, President Bashir and his National Congress Party allies have sought to reinforce their authority by fomenting rifts in the security forces, subnational authorities, and other potential challengers. The NCP leadership has also resisted reform calls from moderate party members and opposition groups and reinforced its exclusionary Arab-Islamic identity for Sudan. Such short-sighted maneuvers may result in a failure to address significant rights and reconciliation issues in restive peripheral regions of the country, a stagnating economy, and a deteriorating NCP party platform that lacks strategic vision.
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Planning and Budgeting in Southern Sudan: Lessons for Post-Conflict Settings
By Fiona Davies and Gregory Smith. Overseas Development Institute, October 2010.
Lack of experience and capacity in designing and managing national budgets is a common feature in post conflict contexts. Through innovative inter-ministerial budget sector working groups, coding systems to enhance monitoring, and adopting technical systems at a slow but deliberative pace, the Government of South Sudan offers some lessons for setting budget priorities, spending ceilings, and administrative schema.
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Improving Natural Resource Management in Sudan
By Paul J. Sullivan and Natalie Nasrallah. United States Institute of Peace, 2010. Petroleum is the biggest contributor of government revenues in both north and south Sudan. Additionally, access to adequate land and water are critical to many local communities and represent potential flash points. Policies regarding revenue-sharing, infrastructure finance and development, land ownership and water delivery should be clarified to avoid competition and disputes. Download the Article: [PDF]
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