Moscow is trying to gain influence in Africa without investing in it, a strategy that can only gain traction if certain African leaders see Russia as a means to validate their own hold on power regardless of popular will.
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Russia’s irregular means of gaining influence in Africa are destabilizing for the continent and disenfranchising for African citizens.
Kenya’s competitive presidential elections reflect hard-earned progress in establishing independent constitutional and judicial guardrails, though a history of electoral violence demands all sides show restraint.
China's reported plans to add another naval base in Africa raise questions about China's increasingly militarized strategy and may stoke fears of compromised sovereignty amid a new "scramble" for Africa.
The application of a Russian-shaped international order in Africa would have destabilizing repercussions for the continent.
Russia has pioneered a model of disinformation to gain political influence in Africa that is now being replicated by other actors across the continent.
The invasion of Ukraine is a wake-up call to the implications of Russia’s attempts to export its governance model to Africa—with sobering consequences for African sovereignty and stability.
Responding to the coups, conflicts, and other derailments of democratic processes in recent years, Africa’s 2022 elections are, in large part, an effort to right the democratic ship of state on the continent.
The push-pull forces driving African migration continue to intensify, portending expanding African migration within and off the continent in 2022.
Chad's national dialogue will not achieve stability or peace as long as those who support civilian rule and civilian transition continue to be excluded from the transition.
Authoritarian leaning governments find solace in emigration. It not only acts as a pressure valve releasing likely instigators of political contestation, but it also improves a country’s e economic wellbeing thanks to remittances. But authoritarian leaning governments should be forewarned about relying on emigration as an alternative to addressing grievances. Over the long term, as larger flows of emigrants make their way to democracies, their experiences lead to new social norms and subsequently to nonviolent social movements back home, which can prove fatal to authoritarian leadership.
Arms embargoes can be effective but require regional and international buy-in, adequate monitoring, and the imposition of sufficient costs on actors who evade the sanctions.