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Militant Islamist groups in Africa set a record pace of activity in 2019, reflecting a doubling of militant Islamist activity from 2013. Expanded activity in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin underscores diversification of threat from Somalia.
The population movement caused by political and structural drivers is creating a spectrum of security threats for Africa.
A surge of attacks in the Sahel coupled with declines in activity by Boko Haram, ISIS, and al Shabaab reflect the constantly shifting threats posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.
Russia has significantly expanded its engagements in Africa in recent years. These engagements often take the form of propping up embattled and isolated autocratic leaders of countries that are rich in natural resources. The United States can draw a distinction with Russia’s destabilizing role by pursuing a positive engagement strategy in Africa. The United States must avoid the Cold War trap of competing with Russia for the affections of corrupt, autocratic leaders in Africa, however, as such a policy would be disastrous for Africa while not advancing US interests.
The African Union will need to overcome a lack of political will and address structural challenges if it is to be effective in responding to security crises on the continent, consistent with its founding mission.
Transforming the protests into genuine democratic change in Sudan will require maintaining an organized reform coalition and reaching an understanding with military leaders.
China's Belt and Road Initiative forges intertwining economic, political, and security ties between Africa and China, advancing Beijing’s geopolitical interests.
Ethiopia’s decision to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 triggered a three-way dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan that remains unresolved. Settling the dispute before the dam comes online is critical for mitigating the risk for future conflict. Nile basin countries can take a number of trust-building measures to reduce mutual suspicion. In the short term, the three countries should reach an agreement on how quickly Ethiopia will fill the dam’s reservoir. In the long-term, negotiating a comprehensive transboundary resource management agreement could provide a lasting framework for resource sharing.