Recent oil and gas discoveries from Ethiopia to Mozambique will likely generate billions of dollars in new revenues for East Africa’s governments. However, numerous red flags have emerged as Uganda steadily progresses toward production. The government has yet to enact sufficient regulatory frameworks, the president wields a heavy hand over the oil sector, and signs of corruption are clear. Working with investors, East African governments will need to avoid such missteps to ensure that new revenues do not become a source of political instability.
The Chad-Cameroon pipeline was a novel World Bank-sponsored consortium intended to generate a revenue windfall and ensure it was spent responsibly. In September 2008 the World Bank ended its role after Chad diverted oil revenues. Rather than breaking the “resource curse,” the pipeline is now cited as another cautionary example of how improper resource management subverts development and stability.
Migration, extractive industry investments, and disputes over land tenure have for decades complicated dynamics within Tuareg communities and their relations with governments in the Sahel. As this region undergoes immense changes and many Tuaregs once again move across borders, conflicts are reemerging. Initiatives that integrate Tuareg concerns over land and livelihood opportunities through inclusive political engagement will be necessary to address these recurring regional conflict drivers.
The seemingly paradoxical outcome of resource-rich countries being development-poor is, in fact, quite predictable given that autocratic governments often rule resource-rich states. Addressing the resource curse requires changing the incentives facing political leaders so that they are rewarded for transparency and confront robust international legal penalties when they do not.
U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan have laid bare deficiencies in U.S. policies and capacities for fostering development and stabilization in conflict-affected contexts. This has led to greater integration of U.S. military and civilian efforts to overcome these challenges. While progress has been made, significant imbalances between development and security assistance remain.
Security Topics: Natural Resources and Conflict