Niger Coup Reversing Hard-Earned Gains

After noteworthy gains in the previous decade under democratically elected governments, the derailing of Niger’s constitutional order by the military coup in July 2023 has resulted in a deterioration in security, economic wellbeing, and agency for Nigerien citizens.


The military coup in Niger has impacted every sector of Nigerien society, demonstrating the centrality of governance to security, economic, and social outcomes. A snapshot of an array of these outcomes reveals a marked shift in Niger’s trajectory since the coup. Despite being one of the poorest countries in the world, Niger had realized discernable progress in the decade prior to the coup under democratically elected Presidents Mahamadou Issoufou and Mohamed Bazoum. Many of those gains have since been upended. With tightening restrictions on the media and information space under the junta, the full extent of this deterioration is difficult to ascertain. This reversal in trajectory will have wider ramifications for the region given that this historically peaceful, landlocked country of 25 million people shares borders with seven neighbors.

Stability Indicator: Security

Pre-Coup Democratic Leadership

  • Fatality rates linked to militant Islamist group attacks in Niger declined by 53 percent in 2023 relative to 2022, prior to the coup.
  • Military expenditures increased 64 percent under Bazoum—to $309 million in 2023.
  • Disarmament and deradicalization programs were encouraging defections from violent extremist groups in the Sahel.
  • In the Southeast, where Niger has faced threats from Boko Haram, there were no violent events between 2021 and 2023 and displaced communities were returning to their villages.

Post-Coup Military Junta

  • Fatalities linked to extremist groups are projected to reach more than 1,600 in 2024—a 60-percent increase from 2023.
  • At least 8 militant Islamist group attacks have claimed a dozen or more soldiers’ lives since the coup. This is a marked increase in the level of violence against the armed forces not seen since 2021.
  • With militant Islamists gaining greater control over key roads to Niamey, the capital is increasingly isolated.
  • Disarmament and deradicalization efforts have stalled since the military coup.

Niger's National Council for Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) leaders Colonel Mamane Sani Kiaou (L), General Moussan Salaou Barmou (C) and Colonel Ibroh Bachirou (2-R)

Niger's National Council for Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) leaders Colonel Mamane Sani Kiaou (L), General Moussan Salaou Barmou (C) and Colonel Ibroh Bachirou (2-R)

Leaders of Niger’s military junta: Colonel Mamane Sani Kiaou (L), General Moussan Salaou Barmou (C), and Colonel Ibroh Bachirou (2-R). (Photo: AFP)

Stability Indicator: Economics

Pre-Coup Democratic Leadership

Post-Coup Military Junta

  • The Nigerien junta has already missed four debt payments and has now defaulted on  $519 million in debt.
  • World Bank-projected economic growth in 2024 is expected to decline by 45 percent from previous estimates.
  • Grain prices such as millet, sorghum, corn, and rice had all increased by more than 12 percent since the same period in 2023, with rice experiencing the highest inflation of 35 percent in the country.

Stability Indicator: Democratic Space

Pre-Coup Democratic Leadership

  • The election of Bazoum, with 56 percent of the vote in February 2021, was widely seen as free and fair.
  • Bazoum succeeded Issoufou, who stepped down after completing his constitutionally limited second term in office, representing the first peaceful transfer of power in Niger’s history.
  • This democratic trajectory was emerging from Niger’s long history of military government, including four military coups between 1974 and 2010.

Post-Coup Military Junta

Stability Indicator: Independent Media

Pre-Coup Democratic Leadership

  • Nigerien investigative journalists were central to exposing the diversion of millions of dollars from military procurement contracts.
  • Press freedoms were respected under Issoufou and Bazoum, including some independent media outlets being highly critical of a cybercrime law written during the Issoufou administration that journalists argued were overly restrictive and used to target journalists with defamation suits unfairly.

Post-Coup Military Junta

Stability Indicator: Information Space

Pre-Coup Democratic Leadership

  • Niger’s legislators adopted a law on human rights defenders in June 2022 that protected these activists from attacks, reprisals, or unjustified legal restrictions.
  • The Council of Ministers approved a 2022 bill amending the Repression of Cybercrimes Law, removing prison sentences for defamation and insults via information systems.

Post-Coup Military Junta

A school teacher teaches a class at the Sakoira school in the Tillaberi region of Niger. (Photo: AFP/Olympia de Maismont)

Stability Indicator: Transparency

Pre-Coup Democratic Leadership

Post-Coup Military Junta

Stability Indicator: National Sovereignty

Pre-Coup Democratic Leadership

Post-Coup Military Junta

  • Indicative of the Russian tactic of reflexive control, whereby one state actor causes another to make decisions to its own detriment by providing carefully selected information, the junta has taken decisions that undermine Niger’s security, economy, and sovereignty. This includes undermining Nigeriens’ democratic voice and agency.
  • The junta has reportedly agreed to pay for the deployment of the Russian Africa Corps troops in cash and by granting mining rights to Nigerien gold mines at what junta leaders have characterized as a “high cost” to Niger.

Additional Resources