UN Police Officer meeting with residents in the Menaka Region of north-east Mali. (Photo: MINUSMA/Gema Cortes)
Violent extremism remains one of Africa’s most pressing security threats. Militant Islamist violence in Africa is largely concentrated in five theaters, each comprising distinct, locally based actors and context-specific challenges: the Sahel, Somalia, the Lake Chad Basin, North Africa, and Mozambique. Employing asymmetric tactics and integrating within local communities, militant groups have sought to amplify grievances and intercommunal differences as a means of mobilizing recruitment and fostering antigovernment sentiments. Given these complex challenges, governments must prioritize building trust with local communities while developing more robust and mobile defense capabilities to sustain a security presence in contested regions. Following are a series of Africa Center analyses that track the evolution of the varied militant Islamist groups in Africa and ways to counter them.
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Militant Islamist Groups Advancing in Mali
The recent militant Islamist attack in Bamako is part of a broader push by violent extremist groups into southern Mali and reflective of the deteriorating security in Mali under military rule.
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Africa’s Constantly Evolving Militant Islamist Threat
Fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence in Africa have surged by nearly 60 percent since 2021, though this is marked by widely varying regional threat trajectories, actors, and objectives.
Publication
Recalibrating Coastal West Africa’s Response to Violent Extremism
Coastal West African countries can strengthen resiliency to the threat of violent extremism by enhancing a multilayered response addressing local, national, and regional priorities.
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Assessing Mali’s Non-Transition
The Malian military junta has repeatedly refused to honor its commitments to transition back to a democratic civilian government, resulting in mounting security and economic costs to citizens.
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Deaths Linked to Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Continue to Spiral
Fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence jumped by 20 percent in 2023, claiming more than 23,000 lives—a new record. Over 80 percent of these deaths were in the Sahel and Somalia.
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Burkina Faso Crisis Continues to Spiral
Following two military coups d’état in 2022, militant Islamist groups in Burkina Faso have moved to encircle Ouagadougou leaving a trail of unprecedented violence in their wake.
Spotlight
African-Led Peace Operations: A Crucial Tool for Peace and Security
African-led peace operations have been vital tools for managing Africa’s complex array of security challenges, though continued reform is needed to intervene more decisively in the continent’s most devastating conflicts.
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African Militant Islamist Group-Linked Fatalities at All-Time High
A 50-percent spike in fatalities tied to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel and Somalia over the past year has eclipsed the previous high in 2015 when Boko Haram was at its most lethal phase.
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Mali Catastrophe Accelerating under Junta Rule
The threat of militant Islamist groups is spreading to all parts of Mali as the military junta stakes its claim to stay in power indefinitely.
Spotlight
Reclaiming Al Shabaab’s Revenue
Cutting off al Shabaab’s estimated $100 million in extortion-generated annual revenue will require restoring the integrity of Somalia’s compromised financial, judicial, and intelligence agencies.
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Malian Military Junta Scuttles Security Partnerships while Militant Violence Surges
The military junta in Mali has alienated regional and international security partners amid escalating violence by militant Islamist groups, leading to a spike in civilian fatalities.
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Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent
Continuing a decade-long upward trend, violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa increased by 22 percent while fatalities surged by 48 percent over the past year.
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Five Zones of Militant Islamist Violence in the Sahel
The deterioration of the security environment in the western Sahel is marked by an array of differing actors, drivers, and motivations, calling for contextualized responses.
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Mali’s Militant Islamist Insurgency at Bamako’s Doorstep
Militant Islamist group violence is accelerating in Mali, advancing a complex insurgency in north, central, and increasingly southern Mali that further threatens the country’s stability.
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Sahel and Somalia Drive Rise in Africa’s Militant Islamist Group Violence
Militant Islamist violence in Africa has risen continuously over the past decade, doubling in just the past 3 years.
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Strengthening Sahelian Counterinsurgency Strategy
Adapting Sahelian force structures to lighter, more mobile, and integrated units will better support the population-centric COIN practices needed to reverse the escalating trajectory of violent extremist attacks.
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Debunking the Malian Junta’s Claims
Mali’s military coup has thrust the country into a deeper security crisis as the junta quashes dissent and resists a democratic transition.
Spotlight
The Growing Threat of Violent Extremism in Coastal West Africa
Sahelian militant Islamist groups are threatening border areas of littoral states where grievances held by pastoralist communities may provide an entry point for extremist interests.
Spotlight
Trajectories of Violence Against Civilians by Africa’s Militant Islamist Groups
Extremist group violence against civilians is driven by context-specific factors—outgroup grievances, intimidation to control territory, and a response to heavy-handed security responses—that require enhanced community-level mitigation and military professionalism.
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Surge in Militant Islamist Violence in the Sahel Dominates Africa’s Fight against Extremists
A 70-percent annual increase in violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel propelled a new record of extremist violence in Africa in 2021.
Spotlight
Cries from the Community: Listening to the People of Cabo Delgado
Stabilizing northern Mozambique will involve more than defeating violent extremists. It will also require rebuilding trust with marginalized and traumatized local communities.
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African Militant Islamist Group Violence Maintains Record Pace, though Slowing
The contours of African militant Islamist group violence are shifting, though maintaining a record pace of havoc resulting in an average of 14 violent events per day.
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Tunisia’s Evolving Counterterrorism Strategy
To build on its commendable counterterrorism progress, Tunisia needs to elevate its prevention efforts and strengthen oversight mechanisms to prevent abuses by its security forces.
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Nigeria’s Diverse Security Threats
Nigeria faces an array of security challenges beyond Boko Haram. Distinguishing these threats and understanding their socio-geographic contours is essential for adapting customized solutions.
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Spike in Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Underscores Shifting Security Landscape
A surge of violent events by militant Islamist groups in Africa, led by escalations in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, sets record and widens instability.
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Islamic State in the Greater Sahara Expanding Its Threat and Reach in the Sahel
Violence linked to the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) more than doubled in the past year. Concentrated along the Burkina Faso-Niger-Mali border areas, ISGS events target civilians nearly half the time.
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Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Target Nigeria’s Highways
A rise in highway ambushes by Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa pose a growing threat of isolation for Borno State’s 4 million residents.
Publication
The Puzzle of JNIM and Militant Islamist Groups
in the Sahel
Composed of distinct operational entities, the militant Islamist group coalition Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen serves the role of obscuring the operations of its component parts in the Sahel, thereby inhibiting a more robust response.
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Boko Haram Violence against Civilians Spiking in Northern Cameroon
Northern Cameroon has experienced the sharpest spike of Boko Haram violence in the Lake Chad Basin over the past 12 months, namely in the form of attacks on civilians.
Spotlight
Keeping Terrorism at Bay in Mauritania
Mauritania’s security reforms, including training, enhanced mobility, Special Forces, prudent procurement, and community engagement have strengthened its capability to confront violent extremist groups.
Spotlight
Understanding Fulani Perspectives on the Sahel Crisis
The disproportionate representation of Fulani in militant Islamist groups in the Sahel has led to the stigmatization of the entire Fulani community. Reversing this will require renewed outreach and trust-building between Fulani leaders, government authorities, and neighboring communities.
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Chad’s Escalating Fight against Boko Haram
A rise in Boko Haram and ISWA attacks in Chad has been met with a military surge to clear the area. Enduring success will require a sustained presence and an intensified regional commitment.
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How Violent Extremist Groups Exploit Intercommunal Conflicts in the Sahel
Rising violence by militant Islamist groups in the Sahel is straining intercommunal tensions, threatening the foundations of social cohesion in the region.
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Threat from African Militant Islamist Groups Expanding, Diversifying
Militant Islamist groups in Africa set a record pace of activity in 2019, reflecting a doubling of militant Islamist activity from 2013. Expanded activity in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin underscores diversification of threat from Somalia.
Expert Publication
Salafism in the Maghreb: Politics, Piety, and Militancy
The Arab Maghreb is a vitally important region that impacts the security and politics of Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and the broader Middle East. It is also home to the conservative, literalist interpretation of Islam known as Salafism, which has emerged as a major social and political force.
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Responding to the Rise in Violent Extremism in the Sahel
Reversing the escalating violence of militant Islamist groups in the Sahel will require an enhanced security presence coupled with more sustained outreach to local communities.
Spotlight
Ansaroul Islam: The Rise and Decline of a Militant Islamist Group in the Sahel
Burkina Faso’s first militant Islamist group, Ansaroul Islam, has faced setbacks, pointing to the weaknesses of violent extremist organizations lacking deep local support and facing sustained pressure.
Spotlight
Exploiting Borders in the Sahel: The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara
The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara has pursued breadth rather than depth of engagement in its rapid rise along the Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso borders.
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The Many Drivers Enabling Violent Extremism in Northern Mozambique
The violent extremist threat in northern Mozambique exploits underlying societal vulnerabilities of inequity, insecure land rights, and distrust of authorities.
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Confronting Central Mali’s Extremist Threat
The Macina Liberation Front has opportunistically played on perceptions of ethnic, economic, religious, and political marginalization to become one of the most active militant Islamist groups in Mali.
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Progress and Setbacks in the Fight against African Militant Islamist Groups in 2018
Declines in violent activity linked to Boko Haram and al Shabaab are balanced by increases in the Sahel, generating a mixed picture of the challenge posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.
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The Emergence of Violent Extremism in Northern Mozambique
The emergence of a new militant Islamist group in northern Mozambique raises a host of concerns over the influence of international jihadist ideology, social and economic marginalization of local Muslim communities, and a heavy-handed security response.
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More Activity but Fewer Fatalities Linked to African Militant Islamist Groups in 2017
Militant Islamist group activity in Africa continues to be highly context-specific. Those with strong local ties have shown considerable resilience, while ISIS has struggled to gain traction in the Maghreb.
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The Lion’s Head and Tail: A Discussion on Countering Insurgencies with General Mahamane Touré
Former Malian Defense Chief of Staff General Mahamane Touré reflects on lessons learned from Mali’s counter insurgency efforts in the North.
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Africa’s Pastoralists: A New Battleground for Terrorism
Islamist terrorist groups in the Sahel and Sahara are attempting to exploit pastoralist grievances to mobilize greater support for their agenda, write Kaley Fulton and Benjamin Nickels.
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The Evolution of Militant Islamist Group Activity in Africa 2010–2016
The geographic spread and frequency of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa has expanded steadily since 2010, with a peak in 2015. Eight African countries now regularly face attacks by an assortment of militant Islamist groups.
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The Islamic State’s West Africa Province
Dr. Raymond Gilpin discusses how Boko Haram has evolved since it pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in March 2015.
Publication
Islamist Extremism in East Africa
Abdisaid M. Ali reviews the mainstreaming of Salafist ideology in East Africa and the polarizing impact of this more exclusivist interpretation of Islam.
Video
Boko Haram: An Evolving Emergency
Regional forces have begun to constrain Boko Haram, but tensions and a lack of coordination have hampered progress. On Capitol Hill, Africa Center Dean of Academic Affairs Dr. Raymond Gilpin dissects the issue.
Spotlight
Terrorists Strike Burkina Faso: What are the Implications?
The terrorist attack on a luxury hotel in Ouagadougou is the second time in recent months that groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have conducted attacks of this type outside their base area. Benjamin Nickels assesses the significance of these attacks and steps that might be taken by Burkinabé authorities and their partners to address future threats.
Spotlight
Extremism: Root Causes, Drivers, and Responses
Efforts to counter violent extremism (CVE) in Africa long pre-date ISIS. Drawing on its CVE work over the years, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies highlights some of the recurring themes.
Video
Trajectories of Terrorist & Armed Groups in Africa
To block the spread of recruitment and radicalization in West Africa, African policymakers and their partners should seize the window of opportunity to support preventative measures in as-yet untouched communities.
Spotlight
The Islamic State and African Terrorism
The growing competition between the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda for influence on Africa’s terrorist groups was the theme of a recent panel presentation by Drs. Benjamin Nickels and Joseph Siegle from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
Spotlight
Assessing the Terrorist Attack in Tunisia
The deadly terrorist attack on the Bardo museum in Tunisia on March 18 turned the global spotlight on this North African nation, which has made significant strides in consolidating democracy since its long-serving ruler, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, was ousted from power in January 2011.
Spotlight
Understanding Terrorist Threats in Africa
Al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Boko Haram, while all different, each display three common characteristics that aid in understanding terrorist actors in Africa.
Expert Publication
Boko Haram and the Isolation of Northern Nigeria: Regional and International Implications
Boko Haram’s violent campaign for an Islamic state in northern Nigeria has led to the growing isolation of this region. Trade in Kano, the economic hub of the north, is estimated to have been cut by half in recent years. Roughly $15 billion worth of annual trade and two million traders from neighboring countries used to flow through Kano. As Boko Haram’s violent attacks have increased, fewer traders are crossing the border to take the risk. This coincides with a stream of businesses leaving northern states from Borno to Kaduna for greater stability in the south. Boko Haram’s high-profile kidnapping of French tourists in February 2013 accelerated the plunge in travel in the region. Internet and cell phone access have similarly been restricted due to Boko Haram’s bombing of 24 base transceiver stations belonging to at least six telecommunications companies in the northeast.
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Mitigating Radicalism in Northern Nigeria
Mitigating radicalism, in northern Nigeria as elsewhere, requires a sustained approach targeting every stage of the radicalization spectrum.
Interview
Ask the Expert: Dr. Hussein Solomon on Radical Islamism in Africa
In this edition of Ask the Expert, Dr. Hussein Solomon, a leading expert on militant Islam and counterterrorism strategies in Africa—who lectures at the Department of Political Sciences at the University of the Free State in South Africa—assesses the state of fundamentalism on the continent.
Publication
Support for Boko Haram among some of northern Nigeria’s marginalized Muslim communities suggests that security actions alone will be insufficient to quell the instability.
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West Africa’s Growing Terrorist Threat: Confronting AQIM’s Sahelian Strategy
Counterterrorism efforts among Sahelian governments remain uncoordinated and too narrowly focused to contain and confront AQIM’s long-term and sophisticated strategy in the region. To prevent AQIM from further consolidating its presence in the Sahel, regional policies must be harmonized and security forces refocused so as to minimize collateral impacts on local communities.
Also see our academic program video playlist on Countering Violent Extremism in Africa.