Asarar Rayuka da ya aka Danganta da Kungiyar ‘Yan Kishin Adinin Islama na Afirka Mafi Girma a Kowane Lokaci

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Bitar tsakiyar shekara na shekara-shekara game da tashin hankalin da aka danganta da kungiyoyin kishin adinin Islama na Afirka da ke tantance abubuwan da ke faruwa a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata ya jaddada karuwar asarar rayuka a yankin Sahel da Somaliya. Muhimman abubuwan da aka gano sun haɗa da:

• Asarar rayuka da aka danganta da kungiyoyin kishin adinin Islama ya kai 22,288 a cikin watanni 12 da suka gabata. Wannan yana nuna karuwar kashi 48 idan aka kwatanta da shekarar da ta gabata wanda aka yi asarar rayuka 15,024. Wannan matakin asarar rayuka ya kusan sau biyu da rabi fiye da yadda aka samu a shekaru 10 da suka gabata kuma ya zarce adadin 20,562 da aka kafa a shekarar 2015, wanda galibin hare-haren Boko Haram ne ke haddasawa.

• Kashi 80 na wadannan asarar rayuka da lamari, suna faruwa ne a yankin Sahel da Somaliya, wadanda suka sami karuwar asarar rayuka masu alaka da kungiyar kishin adinin Islama 39 da kashi 157 a shekara, bi da bi. Yankin Sahel na ci gaba da kasancewa yankin da ke fuskantar tashin hankali (2,912) da kuma asarar rayuka (9,818).
• Babbar raguwar tashe-tashen hankular masu kishin adinin Islama a Arewacin Afirka da Arewacin Mozambique ya taimaka wajen daidaita tashe-tashen hankular nahiya-nahiya, wanda ya karu da kashi 4 cikin dari. Duk da haka, Afirka ta fuskanci kusan ninki huɗu a cikin rahotannin tashe-tashen hankula da ke da alaƙa da ƙungiyoyin kishin adinin Islama a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata (daga sau 1,812 a cikin 2014 zuwa sau 6,756 a cikin 2023). Kusan rabin wannan ci gaban ya faru a cikin shekaru 3 da suka gabata.

• Yaƙe-yaƙe sun haifar da karuwar asarar rayuka da ke da alaƙa da ƙungiyoyi masu kishin adinin Islama a cikin ‘yan shekarun nan. A cikin 2023, an danganta sama da kashi biyu bisa uku na asarar rayuka da aka ruwaito (14,867) da fadace-fadace, kashi mafi girma a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata. Yawancin wannan ana iya danganta su da karuwar tashe-tashen hankula a Somaliya, wanda ya samu karuwar asarar rayuka da suka shafi yaki da kashi 235 cikin 100 a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, wanda ya yi sanadiyar asarar rayuka 6,199.

Yankin Sahel

• Yankin Sahel ya ninka yawan tashe tashen hankula da suka shafi kungiyoyin kishin Islama tun daga shekarar 2021 (a yanzu adadin ya kai 2,912). Hakanan ta fuskanci kusan ninki uku a cikin asarar rayuka da ke da alaƙa da wannan tashin hankali a cikin lokaci guda (har zuwa asarar rayuka 9,818).

• Kashi 87 na tashe-tashen hankula a yankin Sahel sun tattare Burkina Faso da Mali. Rikicin da aka gani a cikin tashin hankali ya zo daidai da juyin mulkin da suka faru a kasashen. Hakan kuma na nuni da damar da mayakan suka samu a lokacin da gwamnatin mulkin sojan Mali ta samuta wargaza ayyukanta na yanki, MINUSMA, da haɗin gwiwar tsaro na duniya, yayin da yake gayyata a cikin dakarun Kungiyar Wagner na Rasha, waɗanda aka zarge su da cin zarafi da keta haƙƙin ɗan adam.
• Burkina Faso na ci gaba da fuskantar tashe-tashen hankula a yankin Sahel, wanda ya kai fiye da kashi 50 na al’amuran da aka ruwaito dangane da kungiyoyin ‘yan kishin adinin Islama a fagen (a shekara biyu a jere). Burkina Faso kuma ita ce ke da kashi 62 na yawan asarar rayuka a yankin. A cikin shekarar da ta gabata, Burkina Faso ta sami karuwar asarar rayuka da kashi 88 cikin dari, wanda ke nufin mutuwa 6,130.
• Yankin Sahel dai ta rike fege mai cike da shakku da hare-heren da aka kai kan fararen hula shekaru 3 da suka gabata. A cikin 2023, an sami hare-hare sama da 1,100 kan fararen hula daga kungiyoyin ‘yan kishin adinin Islama na Sahel wadanda suka haddasa asarar rayuka sama da 2,080—wato kashi 59 na duk irin wadannan hare-hare kan fararen hula daga kungiyoyin masu kishin adinin Islama a Afirka, da kuma kashi 68 na asarar rayuka.

• An samu kusan daidai adadin hare-haren da aka kai kan fararen hula a matsayin fadace-fadacen da aka yi a shekarar da ta gabata, inda fadan ya kai kashi 60 cikin dari na asarar rayuka a yankin. A halin da ake ciki, asarar rayuka da aka danganta da tashin hankali (mafi yawan IEDs) ya karu da kashi 61 a cikin shekarar da ta gabata.
• Yawancin yakin da aka yi da kuma asarar rayuka suna da alaƙa da ƙungiyoyin hadin gwiwar Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM). A Mali, da karewar Barkhane da na MINUSMA, Mopti ta samu karuwar asarar rayuka da kashi 37. Gao, inda JNIM da Daular Musulunci a cikin Babban Sahara (ISGS) ke fafatawa don samun iko, ta samu karuwar kashi 40 cikin 100.

• Nijar tana da kashi 8 na yawan tashe-tashen hankula a yankin Sahel a shekarar da ta gabata. Sakamakon janyewar dakarun Barkhane da na MINUSMA a kasar Mali an samu karuwar ta’addancin ISGS a kan iyakar Nijar. Duk da haka, Nijar ta samu raguwar asarar rayuka da kashi 54 a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, wadanda akasarinsu na da alaka da yaki.
• Idan dai ba a manta ba, a yayin da ake fama da tashe-tashen hankula da asarar rayuka a fagen Sahel, hukumomin sojan Mali da Burkina Faso na takura wa yancin ‘yan jaridada kuma rage ko hana damar yin amfani da ‘yan kasashen waje waɗanda ke ba da tsaro da taimakon jin kai. Sakamakon haka, watakila an rage adadin tashe-tashen hankula da asarar rayuka da ke da alaƙa da Mali da Burkina Faso da aka ruwaito.

• Kowane cikin Benin da Togo ya sami karuwar tashin hankali a cikin shekarar da ta gabata (zuwa 131 daga 16 a Benin, zuwa 22 daga 3 a Togo). Wannan yana nuna haɓakar ninki takwas a cikin tashe-tashen hankula. Abin da ake gani a baya a matsayin bala’in da ya barke daga Burkina Faso zuwa kasashen Yammacin Afirka ya zama barazanar tsaro a wadannan kasashe. Benin da Togo sun fuskanci asarar rayuka 140 da 98 a sakamakon wannan tashin hankali a cikin shekarar da ta gabata.

Somaliya

• Somaliya ta samu karuwar asarar rayuka da kashi 157 a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, wanda ya yi sanadiyar asarar rayuka 7,937. Wannan yana nuna adadin asarar rayuka a Somaliya a shekaru 17 da ta yi, wanda ya zarce adadin da ya gabata na asarar rayuka 5,224 a cikin 2018.
• Somaliya ce ke da kashi 36 na yawan asarar rayuka masu alaka da masu kishin adinin Islama a nahiyar a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, wanda ya sa ta zama fage na biyu mafi yawan aiki (bayan Sahel). Wannan kaso ya kai kusan inda Somalia ta kasance cikin shekaru 4 da suka gabata, wanda ya kasance koma baya daga kashi na farko na shekaru goma inda, a matsakaita, yana da alaka da fiye da kashi 50 na duk ayyukan masu kishin adinin Islama a Afirka.

• Somaliya ta samu karuwar kashi 235 na asarar rayuka masu alaka da yaki a cikin shekarar da ta gabata (zuwa mutuwar mutane 6,199). A wannan shekara, asarar rayuka masu alaka da yaƙi ya ƙunshi kashi 78 na duk asarar rayuka da ke da alaƙa da Somaliya. Wannan yana nuna haɓaka daga matsakaicin kashi 63 cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata.
• A watan Agusta na 2022, sabon zababben shugaban kasa Hassan Sheikh Mohamud ya yi kira na hadin gwiwa tare da mayakan dangi da sojojin kasa da kasa, ciki har da ATMIS, da al-Shabaab. Haɓaka a cikin asarar rayuka da ke da alaƙa da yaƙi na nuna wannan hare-hare da kumaharin ramuwar gayya daga al-Shabaab.

• A shekarar da ta gabata ma an samu karuwar kashi 71 na kashe-kashen da al-Shabaab ke yi kan fararen hula. Ko da yake cin zarafi da ake yi wa farar hula ya kasance dabarar al Shabab mafi ƙanƙanta, wannan ƙarar na iya nuna matsi mai girma da Mayakan al Shabaab na fuskantar daga farmakin hadin gwiwa, inda wasu suka tsere ta kan iyakar Kenyakuma a halin yanzu na kai hari kan fararen hula. A wani yunƙuri na ci gaba da tsoratarwa kan al’ummomin yankin, al-Shabaab ma ta kashe manyan shehunai da ‘yan majalisawadanda suka soki kungiyar masu fafutuka.
• A cikin shekarar da ta gabata ma an ga yake-yake na lokaci-lokaci da al-Shabaab ke yi cikin Habasha. Ko da yake bai saba faruwa ba, wannan tashin hankalin ya yi sanadiyar asarar rayuka 214, wanda ya yi kamari daga shekarar da ta gabata. Yayin da Kenya ke fuskantar tashe tashen hankula daga al Shabaab a kan iyakarta fiye da Habasha, adadin asarar rayuka a Kenya ya ragu zuwa 125.

Yankin Tafkin Chadi

• Bayan da aka samu raguwar tashe-tashen hankula da asarar rayuka a shekarar 2022, Yankin Tafkin Chadi ta sake samun karuwar ayyuka (kashi 17) da kuma asarar rayuka (kashi 9) a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, wanda ya dawo da tashin hankalin masu kishin adinin Islama zuwa matakan shekarar 2019.
• An danganta abubuwan da suka faru 986 da sake tasowar rikicin Boko Haram. An samu karuwar kashi 57 na ayyukan da ke da alaka da Boko Haram. Ko da yake, an sami raguwar kashi 5 na al’amuran da ke da alaƙa da Daular Musulunci a Afirka ta Yamma (ISWA).
• Asarar rayuka 3,859 da aka ruwaito a cikin shekarar da ta gabata na nuna karuwar ayyukan da ake dangantawa da Boko Haram da kashi 63 da kuma raguwar kashi 18 na ISWA. Yanzu dai kungiyoyin biyu sun yi daidai da adadin asarar rayuka dangane da su a Yankin Tafkin Chadi.
• Yayin da kashi 50 na tashe-tashen hankulan masu kishin adinin Islama a Yankin Tafkin Chadi ke cikin Najeriya, Kamaru, Nijar, da Chadi duk sun fuskanci karuwar wannan tashin hankali a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Kamaru ta yi fice tare da karuwar kashi 51 na ayyukan tashin hankali, wanda ya kunshi aukuwa 351. Duk da wannan karuwar, kashi 82 na asarar rayuka a wannan fagen suna cikin Najeriya.

• Boko Haram ta fadada ayyukanta na tashin hankali a fadace-fadace, cin zarafin jama’a, da tashin hankali. Yakin ya kasance mai mafi yawan abubuwan da ke hade da Boko Haram da ISWA. Dukan kungiyoyin kuma sun kasance sunafada da junaTun bayan mutuwar shugaban Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, a shekarar 2021.
• Cin zarafi ga fararen hula shine dabaru mafi yawan faruwa ta biyu da kungiyoyin biyu ke amfani da su. Hare-haren da ake kai wa fararen hula ya haifar da kashi 43 na tashin hankalin da ke da alaka da Boko Haram, sannan kashi 29 na ISWA. Dogon dogaro da shitsinkaya, ‘Yan Boko Haram sun yi amfani da raunin farar hulawajen arzuta kansu.

Mozambique

• Rikicin Ahlu Sunnah wa Jama’a (ASWJ) wanda ya faro a watan Oktoba na shekarar 2017 kuma cikin sauri ya fara karu, ya fara raguwa bayan isowar Kungiyar Raya Kasashen Kudancin Afirka (SADC) da jami’an tsaron kasar Rwanda a watan Yulin shekarar 2021. Ci gaba da kasancewar dakarun ya haifar da raguwar ayyuka da kuma asarar rayuka masu alaka da kungiyar ta’addanci.
• A karon farko tun shigowar ta, rahotannin tashin hankalin da ke da alaƙa da ASWJ ya ragu da kashi 27, kuma asarar rayuka sun ragu da kashi 43. Abubuwan da suka faru 301 da asarar rayuka 596 da aka ruwaito a shekarar 2023 sune mafi ƙanƙanta da Mozambique ta fuskanta tun 2019.
• Wannan yana nuna raguwar fadace-fadace da cin zarafin fararen hula.

• Faduwar kashi 20 na yawan hare-hare kan fararen hula (zuwa aukuwa 171) abin lura ne na musamman. Cin zarafi ga fararen hula ya kasance wani abu ne mai ban sha’awa na ASWJ (wanda ke nuna kusan kashi 71 na ayukan ASWJ a matsakaici) Asarar rayuka masu alaka sun ragu da kashi 25 (zuwa 261).

Arewacin Afirka

• Ci gaba da koma bayan da aka samu tun daga shekarar 2015, ayyukan masu kishin adinin Islama da kuma asarar rayuka a Arewacin Afirka sun ragu da sama da kashi 75 a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Wannan yayi daidai da aukuwar tashin hankali 51 da kuma asarar rayuka 78. A yanzu fagen na ba da gudummawar kashi 1 na ayyukan masu kishin addinin Islama da ƙasa da kashi 1 na asarar rayuka masu alaƙa.
• Ci gaba da raguwar tashin hankali na nuna haɗakar abubuwa. A cikin kusan karshen wannan shekaru goma, akasarin tashe-tashen hankulan masu kishin Islama sun faru a Masar. Ya riga ya ragu sosai a wani wuri, saboda rashin goyon bayan farar hula (misali, Aljeriya da Libya). Hatta a Tunisiya, wadda mafi yawan ‘yan kasar ke ficewa domin shiga kungiyar ISIS a Iraki da Siriya don yaki, ba a samun goyon bayan irin wadannan kungiyoyin masu kishin Islama a cikin gida ba. Kamar Masar da Aljeriya, Tunisiya ta yi kokari sosai wajen murkushe kungiyoyin masu kishin Islama wanda suka bayyana.