The Limits to China’s Transactional Diplomacy in Africa
China has a stated policy of noninterference in internal affairs, predicated on respecting “sovereign authority” (guoquan; 国权) and “stability maintenance” (weiwen;维稳), which holds that legitimacy derives from uncontested control of state power. Practically, this makes China “regime agnostic,” which is how some African commentators describe China’s preference for working with governments of all shades—authoritarian, military, civilian, democratic—so long as their hold on power is relatively firm. This strategy also means China is invested in regime stability, a policy that is particularly pronounced in fragile settings like Niger, where it has a major stake in keeping the regime in office…China is increasingly aware of the tests facing its transactional dealmaking in parts of Africa. A report released in May 2025 by the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce warned that political instability in Africa was creating a complex operating environment for Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs)…Transactional relationships with governments that lack fidelity to constitutional rules or govern by decree or in a highly personalized style are inherently unstable…This means that the nature and quality of governance should be key considerations in investment decisions. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Rwanda, Congo Sign Peace Deal in US to End Fighting, Attract Investment
Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement on Friday, raising hopes for an end to fighting that has killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands more this year…At a ceremony with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, the two African countries’ foreign ministers signed the agreement pledging to implement a 2024 deal that would see Rwandan troops withdraw from eastern Congo within 90 days, according to a copy seen by Reuters. Kinshasa and Kigali will also launch a regional economic integration framework within 90 days, the agreement said…Trump later met both officials in the Oval Office, where he presented them with letters inviting Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame to Washington to sign a package of agreements that Massad Boulos, Trump’s senior adviser for Africa, dubbed the “Washington Accord”…Rwanda has sent at least 7,000 soldiers over the border, according to analysts and diplomats, in support of the M23 rebels, who seized eastern Congo’s two largest cities and lucrative mining areas in a lightning advance earlier this year. The gains by M23, the latest cycle in a decades-old conflict with roots in the 1994 Rwandan genocide, sparked fears that a wider war could draw in Congo’s neighbours. Reuters
UN Working for Ceasefire in Besieged Sudan City
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Friday he has been in contact with the warring sides in Sudan to try to reach a ceasefire in the besieged and starving city of El-Fasher. Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has agreed in principle to such a humanitarian pause, his ruling Transitional Council said. But the opposing paramilitary side, led by al-Burhan’s erstwhile deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, said it had received no truce proposal. Since April 2023, the army has been at war with Daglo’s Rapid Support Forces, killing tens of thousands and tearing Africa’s third-largest country in two. In the latest violence, paramilitary shelling of El-Fasher on Friday killed 13 people including three children, a medical source told AFP. Another 21 were injured. In a telephone conversation with al-Burhan, Guterres called for a weeklong ceasefire in El-Fasher to allow humanitarian aid to be delivered to civilians, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. The city has been besieged by the RSF for more than a year. AFP
Thousands Flee Fighting in Sudan’s West Kordofan, U.N. Agency Says
Thousands of families have fled a village in Sudan’s West Kordofan state following clashes between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the U.N. migration agency said on Sunday. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) said in a statement that an estimated 3,200 families fled the village of El Gantoor, about 35 km northwest of Babanusa, on Friday. The displaced have moved to various areas in the nearby Al-Du’ayn locality, the IOM said, describing the situation in the region as “tense and rapidly changing.” The displacement follows a multi-day RSF assault on the army-controlled town of Babanusa that began on June 16. The army stated it repelled the attack, forcing RSF fighters to pull back into surrounding villages. The RSF controls most of West Kordofan, including its capital Al-Fulah, while the army holds Babanusa and some oil fields in the Heglig area. Separately, the IOM reported that 121 families were displaced from the village of Lamina in the neighbouring North Kordofan state due to “worsening insecurity.” That displacement followed an RSF attack on June 24 on villages south of El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan. The RSF has been attempting to tighten its encirclement of El-Obeid, a key army stronghold, after capturing nearby towns in May. Sudan Tribune
AU Delegation Concludes South Sudan Visit
A high-level African Union (AU) delegation wrapped up a humanitarian assessment mission in South Sudan on Friday, evaluating the country’s capacity to handle a worsening refugee crisis fueled by the ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan. Led by Ambassador Churchill Ewumbue-Monono, the AU’s Permanent Representative, the delegation assessed conditions for refugees, returnees, and internally displaced persons (IDPs), inspected AU-backed education projects, and reviewed South Sudan’s adherence to African migration protocols…South Sudan currently hosts over 650,000 refugees, most fleeing Sudan’s civil war, which erupted in April 2023. The Commission for Refugee Affairs (CRA) said arrivals also include people from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Burundi, Eritrea, and Ethiopia…Fred Bully Cole, Executive Director of the Humanitarian and Development Consortium (HDC), said the influx—nearly a million returnees and refugees combined—is overwhelming the country…Cole highlighted challenges like inadequate documentation and unregulated border crossings, which block many refugees from accessing basic services. Radio Tamazuj
Ugandan Leader Yoweri Museveni, 80, to Seek Reelection
Ugandan leader Yoweri Museveni has confirmed he intends to contest in next year’s presidential election, potentially extending his rule in the east African country to nearly half a century.
In a post on the X platform late on Saturday Museveni said he had “expressed my interest in running for… the position of presidential flag bearer,” for his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party. The 80-year-old has been ruler of Uganda since 1986 when he seized power after leading a five-year guerrilla war. The ruling party has changed the constitution twice in the past to allow Museveni to extend his rule, and rights activists have accused him of using security forces and patronage to maintain his grip on power. He denies the accusation…The country will hold its presidential election next January, when voters will also elect lawmakers. Museveni’s closest opponent will be pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine who came second in the last presidential election in 2021 and has already confirmed his intention to run in 2026. Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, rejected the 2021 results, saying his victory had been stolen through ballot stuffing, intimidation by security forces and other irregularities. Reuters
Uganda MP ‘Alive but Weak’ After Abduction
A Ugandan member of parliament critical of President Yoweri Museveni has been found “alive but very weak” after being abducted over the weekend, his wife told AFP on Monday. Uganda has seen increased pressure on opposition figures ahead of presidential elections in January, when Museveni will seek to extend his nearly 40 years in power. On Sunday, the Uganda Law Society raised the alarm over the “enforced disappearance” of Barnabas Tinkasiimire, a lawyer and MP. In a statement, the country’s bar association said a family source confirmed Tinkasiimire was picked up by “heavily armed, drone-operating security operatives” at a petrol station in the capital Kampala. Speaking to AFP on Monday, Tinkasiimire’s wife said he had since been found in a suburb of the city. “They dumped him in Namungoona in the early morning hours,” she said, adding that he went missing on Friday. “He is alive but very weak. We have taken him for medical attention,” she said. Tinkasiimire is a member of Museveni’s ruling party, the National Resistance Movement. But in a post on X, opposition leader Bobi Wine said Tinkasiimire “has been very critical of Museveni’s effort to impose his brutal son on our country, which his family believes is the reason he is being persecuted and held incommunicado”. AFP
A Second Ally of Cameroon’s Biya Enters Presidential Race
Cameroon’s Tourism Minister Bello Bouba Maigari has accepted his party’s nomination to seek the presidency in an expected October election, with long-serving President Paul Biya yet to announce whether he plans to run for reelection. A former prime minister, Maigari, 78, has been a staunch ally of President Biya for more than 30 years. He accepted the National Union for Democracy and Progress’ nomination on Saturday, though he did not resign from his cabinet post. He is the second government minister from northern Cameroon to announce a presidential bid in recent days, signalling a potential fracture of the strategic alliance between Biya’s central government and influential northern elites. In power since 1982, Biya is the world’s oldest serving head of state at 92…Maigari’s announcement was preceded last week by the resignation from the government of fellow northerner Issa Tchiroma Bakary, a former government spokesperson, who announced his candidacy, citing widespread calls for change. Reuters
Somalia: Puntland Forces Launch Operation Against ISIS Remnants in Al-Miskad Mountains
Puntland Defense Forces launched a military operation early Monday targeting areas in the Al-Miskad mountain range where remnants of the ISIS-affiliated militant group are believed to be hiding. “The forces are conducting a clearance operation today against fleeing terrorists. Troops have spread out and are advancing toward the limited zones where the fugitives may be hiding,” read a statement from Operation Hillaac, the ongoing military campaign. According to intelligence information obtained by Garowe Online, ISIS elements who previously operated in the Baalade, Miiraale, and Jacayl valley areas are now believed to be hiding in Walisoor and Marmarka — remote locations currently under military pressure. Security officials say the operation is part of a broader effort to eliminate remaining militant cells in the mountainous region, which has long served as a hideout for armed groups. The Puntland authorities have not yet released casualty figures or confirmed arrests linked to the ongoing offensive. Garowe Online
Somaliland’s President Lands in Doha, Qatar for High-level Security, Investment Talks
President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi (Cirro) departed Hargeisa for Doha on Saturday, marking what Somaliland National TV described as “the first-ever official visit by a Somaliland head of state to Qatar.” According to the report, the President’s visit comes in response to “a formal invitation from the Qatari government,” with the delegation expected to remain in Doha for several days. “The visit will serve as a gateway to stronger cooperation between the two sides,” the report added…While in Doha, the president and his delegation are scheduled to hold meetings with senior Qatari leaders and government officials. The talks will focus on a broad range of strategic interests, “including security and stability in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Horn of Africa”, as well as investment in infrastructure and energy, and development cooperation in social and humanitarian sectors. The visit is seen by many as a significant step in Somaliland’s efforts to expand its foreign policy footprint and strengthen diplomatic ties with key regional actors. Addis Standard
Togo Groups Say Recent Protests Left 7 Dead
At least seven people were killed and many others wounded during recent anti-government protests in the Togolese capital Lome, according to an initial count civic groups gave journalists Sunday. Campaigning groups and rights organisations denounced “abuses committed by members of the Togolese security forces and militias”, and said seven bodies had been recovered from rivers in the capital. They also reported “dozens of wounded” and “more than 60 arrests during the three days of demonstrations held from Thursday to Saturday…Protests are rare in Togo, where President Faure Gnassingbe has maintained his grip on power since 2005, succeeding his father who ruled for nearly four decades. But on Thursday morning, small pockets of up to dozens of protesters blocked streets, burned tyres and wooden barricades in the capital, where many businesses remained closed. People have been protesting against a crackdown on critical voices, rising electricity prices and a constitutional reform that allowed Gnassingbe, now 59, to further consolidate his power. AFP
Attack on Malawi Protesters Condemned as Vote Tensions Mount
The European Union and the United States called on Malawi’s government Friday to investigate violence against demonstrators in escalating tensions ahead of September elections. The diplomats issued statements of condemnation after unidentified men armed with machetes and stones attacked a protest of a few dozen people in the capital on Thursday, injuring several and torching two vehicles. The protesters were demanding the resignation of electoral commission officials over claims of a lack of transparency regarding plans to switch to electronic voting systems at the September polls. There have been sporadic demonstrations in the run-up to the election in which President Lazarus Chakwera will be seeking a second term to lead Malawi’s 21 million people, nearly three-quarters of whom live in poverty. One of the protesters at Thursday’s demonstration, Sylvester Namiwa, told AFP he was dragged from a minibus by one of the attackers and beaten in full view of the police and soldiers…Opposition leaders accuse Chakwera’s ruling Malawi Congress Party of stifling dissent through state institutions. There is also anger at skyrocketing prices, with inflation nearing 30 percent. AFP
Mozambique Probes Claims of Army Atrocities Near TotalEnergies Site
Mozambique’s human rights commission said on Friday it has opened an investigation into media reports of deadly abuses by government soldiers against villagers fleeing jihadist unrest near a major TotalEnergies gas plant. Politico reported in September that soldiers tasked with protecting the French fossil fuel giant’s site had rounded up villagers following a major attack in 2021 and locked between 180 and 250 into containers, accusing them of being part of an insurgency. The men were held for three months and beaten, suffocated, starved and tortured, with only 26 surviving, according to the report by journalist Alex Perry based on interviews with survivors and witnesses. “If true, the facts alleged in the article may constitute crimes of summary execution (murder) torture and other cruel, degrading or inhuman treatment,” the National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) said in a statement. A team of investigators was in place and consulting with officials from the northern Cabo Delgado province, the statement said. They would visit the area to collect statements from witnesses and victims, and also meet representatives of Mozambique LNG, the local subsidiary of France’s TotalEnergies. AFP
South Africa: DA Withdraws from National Dialogue, Will Vote against Budgets of ‘Corruption Accused’ ANC Ministers
The DA will oppose the budget votes of ‘corruption accused ANC ministers’ – including Human Settlements Minister Thembi Simelane and Higher Education Minister Nobuhle Nkabane. The DA is not leaving the Government of National Unity (GNU), but it will not participate in the looming National Dialogue, following the axing of its Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry Andrew Whitfield…Earlier this month, Ramaphosa announced the appointment of 31 prominent South Africans to lead the National Dialogue expected to take place on 15 August this year. The initiative – meant to tackle a wide range of South Africa’s pressing issues including unemployment, poor governance and gender-based violence – was met with immediate opposition owing largely to its R740-million price tag. Steenhuisen announced the decision of the DA’s Federal Executive (FedEx) after Ramaphosa removed Whitfield from his position on Wednesday, 25 June, providing no reason for his dismissal. Whitfield’s removal, it later emerged, was apparently due to an “unauthorised” trip he took to the US for the DA in February this year…A second, critically important step that the DA is taking, is to vote against upcoming departmental budget votes for the departments headed by Simelane, Nkabane, and other corruption accused ANC ministers. Daily Maverick
Nigeria: Tinubu’s Saint Lucia Visit Will Boost Ties with Caribbean Nations — Presidency
[Presidential spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, said] President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to Saint Lucia is a strategic engagement that will deepen educational and cultural cooperation with the island nation and the Caribbean…Mr Onanuga said the visit would rekindle Nigeria’s ancestral and strategic economic ties with the Caribbean nation and the wider CARICOM bloc…Mr Onanuga said the visit underscored Nigeria’s rising soft power, driven by Afrobeats, Nollywood, and a literary heritage that resonated across the Caribbean. He noted that Saint Lucia, home to the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), is a gateway to the 15-member CARICOM bloc with a 130 billion dollar GDP. He said that President Tinubu’s presence signalled Nigeria’s interest in expanding South-South trade and strengthening diplomatic and economic ties with the Caribbean…The last African leader to visit was President Nelson Mandela, who attended the 1998 CARICOM Heads of Government Summit. News Agency of Nigeria