African Migration Trends to Watch in 2025
Heightened restrictions on intercontinental border crossings to Europe and the Arabian Peninsula over the past year have resulted in dramatic drops in African irregular migration off-continent. The 146,000 interceptions of irregularly migrating Africans who reached Europe and Gulf countries in 2024 is roughly half of the 282,000 recorded in 2023. The sharp decline in African irregular migration to Europe reflect stepped up European Union-funded interdiction efforts in North Africa (Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt) and West Africa (Senegal and Mauritania)…While recorded migrant deaths and disappearances declined by 15 percent in 2024, there were still an estimated 4,465 migrant fatalities. Three-quarters of these are from attempted maritime crossings to Europe via the Mediterranean and Atlantic…The United Nations (UN) estimates that Africa saw a 25-percent growth of African migrants (excluding refugees and asylum seekers) living in another African country over the last decade (from 12 million in 2015 to 15 million in 2024). Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Tanzania to Host Joint EAC-SADC Summit on Eastern DR Congo Crisis
Tanzania will host a joint summit of two regional blocs to which the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) belongs, signaling a new step to try and find common ground on the crisis caused by a war between M23 rebels and the Congolese army. The meeting will bring together the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East Africa Community (EAC) on Friday and Saturday and will discuss the conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo…This follows an agreement between the SADC chair President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe and EAC counterpart, President William Ruto of Kenya…[Ruto] said DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart President Paul Kagame have confirmed attendance of the meeting that will be preceded by a ministerial meeting on Friday before the Heads of State convene on Saturday. The EastAfrican
As M23 Rebel Group Advances in Congo, a New Leader Signals a Shift in Its Identity
After Rwanda-backed M23 rebels took control of the biggest city in eastern Congo this week, the man who emerged from the shadows to assert his leadership was not the group’s long-time military leader. Sultani Makenga, an ethnic Tutsi rebel leader sanctioned by both the U.S. and the U.N., was nowhere to be seen in Goma’s Serena Hotel as the bearded Corneille Nangaa, in military fatigues, was ushered into the hall. Nangaa, who is not a Tutsi and who analysts say brings a more diverse, Congolese face to the group, told reporters of his plan to fight all the way to Kinshasa, the national capital a thousand miles away. The spectacle was significant because it captures the evolution of M23 from an ethnic Tutsi-dominated outfit more than a decade ago to one that’s now actively seeking to be seen as a Congolese nationalist group…Nangaa is the former head of Congo’s electoral body who oversaw the 2018 presidential election won by President Félix Tshisekedi…A falling-out with Congolese authorities, including a dispute over a mining concession, sent Nangaa into exile in Kenya. In 2023, he joined the Congo River Alliance, a political-military coalition including 17 parties and rebel groups opposed to the government of Tshisekedi and became a top political figure…Last year, Makenga’s M23 joined Nangaa’s Congo River Alliance and with Nangaa at the helm of the revamped outfit, the M23 looked even more menacing to Congolese authorities, analysts say. AP
Sudan: Key RSF Commander Killed in Al-Jazirah Fighting
A top commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s Al Jazirah state, Abdallah Hussein, was killed in an airstrike on Monday, amid fierce clashes between his forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the city of al-Kamelin, north of the state. The RSF had appointed the slain general to lead their forces in Al Jazirah shortly after the defection of Abu Aqla Keikel, who joined the SAF. Hussein led his forces in battles against the army in Ash Shibarqa and Um al·Qura before withdrawing to al-Kamelin after the army regained control of the state capital, Wad Madani, and advanced rapidly across the state. Military sources told Sudan Tribune that “Commander Abdallah Hussein was killed along with a number of his forces in airstrikes carried out by the Sudanese Air Force during clashes with the RSF on the outskirts of al-Kamelin.” Sudan Tribune
Sudan Fighting Escalates; at Least 65 Killed
Fierce fighting in south and west Sudan killed at least 65 people and wounded more than 130 Monday, medics said, as the devastating war between the army and paramilitary forces rages on. In South Kordofan, artillery fire on the state capital Kadugli killed at least 40 people and wounded 70, according to two medical sources. The city, controlled by the Sudanese army, was targeted in an attack that Governor Mohamed Ibrahim blamed on a faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, which also maintains a foothold in the state…In the vast western region of Darfur, a military air strike on South Darfur’s capital, Nyala, killed 25 people and wounded 63 on Monday, a medical source told AFP…The U.N.’s migration agency said on Monday that more than 600,000 people have been displaced from North Darfur since April 2024. AFP
Officials Say a Rebel Attack in Central African Republic Has Killed Several Soldiers
A rebel group killed at least five soldiers in Central African Republic, an army official and city councilor said Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about it. Rebels with the Coalition of Patriots for Change, an anti-government armed group, attacked a military outpost early Monday in the village of Kouki in the northwestern prefecture of Ouham, the prefect, Barthelemy Wilikon, told The Associated Press. Several soldiers were severely injured, he added. Central African Republic has been in conflict since 2013, when predominantly Muslim rebels seized power and forced then-president François Bozizé from office. A 2019 peace deal only lessened the fighting, and six of the 14 armed groups that signed later left the agreement. The Coalition of Patriots for Change was founded in 2020 in the aftermath of the agreement. AP
Ugandan Activists Demand Release of an Opposition Leader Facing Military Trial
Ugandan opposition leaders on Monday demanded the release of a colleague whose military trial faces a legal challenge after the top court ruled that civilians can’t be court-martialed. Kizza Besigye, a four-time presidential candidate in the East African country, has been in jail since his abduction from the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, where he went missing on Nov. 16…Uganda’s Supreme Court ruled last week that civilians can’t be court-martialed, questioning the competence of untrained military officers to dispense justice. The ruling was welcomed by Besigye’s supporters and other legal activists who saw it as timely and a way out for him to escape a possibly punishing military trial…Besigye was expected to appear before the military panel again on Monday but the hearing did not take place, with heavy police and military deployment outside the court premises. AP
Egyptian Political Figures Call For Activist’s Release
A group of Egyptian politicians, activists, lawyers and journalists called for the release of British-Egyptian activist Alaa Abdel Fattah, warning that his mother is in a critical health condition after more than four months on hunger strike. The renowned activist was due to complete his prison sentence last September, but his family has charged that the Egyptian authorities began counting his prison time from the day of his sentencing rather than his arrest, in contravention of the law…Abdel Fattah, 43, was a leading voice in Egypt’s 2011 uprising that toppled former president Hosni Mubarak. He was sentenced to five years in prison in 2019 for “spreading false news” after posting on Facebook about alleged torture in Egyptian jails. AFP
South Sudan: Former SPLM Official Joins Opposition
A former senior member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), Bor Gatwech Kuany, has declared allegiance to the opposition Real Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (R-SPLM). Kuany recently resigned from SPLM over alleged neglect and what he said was the government’s failure to implement critical reforms outlined in the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). R-SPLM is a breakaway faction of President Salva Kiir’s SPLM party, and member of the United People’s Alliance (UPA), formerly known as the South Sudan Opposition Movement Alliance (SSOMA). UPA is currently engaging the government in the Kenya-led Tumaini Initiative talks for sustainable peace in South Sudan. Speaking to Radio Tamazuj on Sunday, Kuany said South Sudan was at a crossroads and that his joining the opposition would amplify the voices demanding reforms. Radio Tamazuj
Ethiopia: Tigray Interim Admin Establishes Advisory Council; Diaspora, Security Bodies Reportedly Absent
The Tigray interim administration has announced the establishment of an advisory council, set to provide guidance and oversight, with Moges Tafere appointed as chairperson and Dejene Mezgebu (PhD), president of the Tigray Independence Party, as deputy chairperson. According to the interim administration, on February 2, 2025, the council includes representatives from “the administration, civil society organizations, political parties operating in the region, the Tigray diaspora, local experts, and security bodies.” However, Tigray Television reported that some groups, including “security bodies, Salsay Weyane Tigray, and members of the region’s diaspora,” were not part of the council’s formation…The formation of the Advisory council comes amid a deepening rift within the TPLF, particularly between factions led by Debretsion Gebremichael and Interim Administration President Getachew Reda, with tensions escalating since the TPLF’s 14th Congress. Addis Standard
Nigeria Union Suspends Planned Protest over Telecom Tariff, Enters Talks with Government
Nigeria’s largest labour union has suspended a planned nationwide protest against a 50% hike in telecommunications tariffs and will negotiate with the government to resolve the dispute within two weeks, both sides said on Tuesday. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), representing millions of workers, had slated a Feb. 4 demonstration after rejecting the tariff increase approved last month by the telecoms regulator -the first such rise in over a decade. Operators have cited surging operational costs linked to inflation nearing 35% and a weakening naira currency as reasons for the tariff rise. The union called the hike “insensitive” and threatened a telecoms service boycott or strike unless the government engaged in talks…Following talks late on Monday, the NLC and government agreed to form a 10-member committee with equal representation to review the hike and to propose solutions by Feb. 17. Reuters
Botswana, De Beers Reach Diamond Sales Agreement after Years of Negotiations
The government of Botswana and South African diamond firm De Beers say they have reached a new, 10-year sales agreement following talks that had dragged on since 2019. Analysts say the diamond industry is sure to welcome the deal, as Botswana, after Russia, is the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds. Under terms of the new agreement, Botswana’s government will be allowed to sell 30% of rough diamonds mined through a joint mining venture with De Beers. The share rises to 50% by the end of the deal in 2035. Botswana hopes that will reverse a decline in diamond revenue. The government once received $7 billion a year through De Beers, but that figure declined to $4.2 billion in 2023, amid falling diamond sales worldwide…Botswana’s Minister of Minerals, Bogolo Kenewendo, said her government and De Beers will officially sign the agreement before the end of February. At the end of the new agreement in 2035, there is an option for a five-year renewal. VOA