Mozambique on Edge before Ruling on Disputed Election Results
Mozambique is on edge ahead of a ruling expected on Monday to determine the final results of October’s disputed elections, after allegations of rigging triggered weeks of protests in which security forces have killed dozens of people…Opposition candidate Venâncio] Mondlane has repeatedly said he won and has urged his supporters to take to the streets. This has brought the economy to a near standstill, including shutting the border and disrupting trade with South Africa. Security forces have cracked down in response, killing at least 130 people and injuring hundreds more, according to Human Rights Watch. Local media reported that security forces shot dead two mourners on 14 December at a funeral for a blogger known as Mano Shottas, who had been killed while livestreaming a protest two days earlier…While most analysts believe there was some level of rigging, some said it was unclear whether Mondlane had won…Four of the constitutional council’s seven judges were appointed by Frelimo parliamentarians, while the chair was appointed by Nyusi. The Guardian
More than 20 Civilians Killed in Central Mali Village Attacks
Suspected Islamic militants killed more than 20 people in a string of attacks on villages in central Mali’s insurgency-hit Mopti region on Friday, two local sources said. The unidentified assailants struck during the day and into the evening, ransacking and burning six villages in the Bandiagara area, the sources said on Saturday, speaking on condition of anonymity. One of the sources said the assailants had come in large numbers on motorcycles and attacked a village, where they killed everyone and destroyed everything. There was no immediate comment from the ruling military junta. Reuters
After Military Took Power, Terrorist Attacks Only Got Worse
Attacks that killed dozens of civilians and soldiers in Niger this month have put a spotlight on the military’s failure to restore security in the West African nation, nearly 18 months after staging a coup. When the military seized power in July 2023, the generals claimed they were better suited to restore order to a country racked by the world’s deadliest jihadist insurgency. But Niger has since spiraled into further violence, with frequent attacks on military forces, the recent destruction of a village and the killing of more than 20 passengers on a bus…Militants affiliated with these groups have killed nearly twice as many civilians since the coup, compared with the 18 months that preceded it, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, or A.C.L.E.D., a nonprofit that tracks global conflict…Security experts say one reason jihadist violence has increased is because Niger’s new leaders ended the talks that Mr. Bazoum had been holding with the insurgents…Mr. Bazoum has been held captive in the presidential palace…Nearly a year after the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States, operational successes have been scarce. Islamist insurgents regularly attack convoys of trucks carrying food and other resources from a port in Togo through neighboring Burkina Faso to Niger’s capital, Niamey. The New York Times
Why Russia Is Not a Great Power in Africa
Moscow’s immense propaganda machine on the continent projects Russia as a great power standing up for the liberation of Africans and the sovereignty of their nations. To bolster its narrative, Russia can leverage memories of Soviet support for anti-colonial insurgencies that fought to dislodge Western influence. The reality is less glossy. Moscow is little more than an opportunistic purveyor of regime protection in return for predatory mining deals that help fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. To this end, Russia supplies mercenaries who have shown themselves to be fantastically under-equipped and overstretched for the immense tasks that they find themselves mixed up in. And with Russia itself overextended—its forces so embroiled in Ukraine that they could no longer protect a valuable client regime in Syria—the Kremlin’s narrative as Africa’s up-and-coming power is starting to crumble. In every country that Russia has seriously engaged with in Africa—Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Sudan, and the Central African Republic—the situation has become radically worse for civilians, with deaths from violence rising significantly. After an eruption of activity over the past few years, Moscow’s hand is weakening as many governments begin to sense the inevitable limits of what President Vladimir Putin has to offer. Now, as Russian forces reportedly begin to evacuate their Syrian air base and military logistics hub in Latakia, Russia’s hand in Africa looks set to be weaker still. Foreign Policy
Why Did at Least 67 People Die in Christmas Charity Stampedes in Struggling Nigeria?
Stampedes during three Christmas charity events across Nigeria have left at least 67 people dead in the past week, many of them children. Families are struggling during the country’s worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. At least 35 children were killed in southwestern Oyo state on Wednesday. And on Saturday, 22 people died in southeastern Anambra state while 10 died in the capital, Abuja, where more than 1,000 people had gathered at a church to receive clothes and food…The economic crisis is blamed on the government’s policies to save money and attract investors, which have contributed to pushing the inflation rate to a 28-year high of 34.6%. Meanwhile the naira currency languishes at record lows against the dollar…Deadly stampedes are not new in Nigeria and are often caused by lack of adherence to public safety measures. But analysts say people’s desperation to survive is making crowd control more difficult…Organizers of such charity events often do not consider security a priority, said Ademola Adetuberu, who runs the Abuja-based Barricade Executive Protection security firm. Meanwhile, the number of events is increasing as philanthropists and organizations try to meet the growing demand for food. AP
As Flooding Becomes a Yearly Disaster in South Sudan, Thousands Survive on the Edge of a Canal
[Extreme flooding] is becoming a yearly disaster in South Sudan, which the World Bank has described as “the world’s most vulnerable country to climate change and also the one most lacking in coping capacity.” More than 379,000 people have been displaced by flooding this year, according to the U.N humanitarian agency. Seasonal flooding has long been part of the lifestyle of pastoral communities around the Sudd, the largest wetlands in Africa, in the Nile River floodplain. But since the 1960s the swamp has kept growing, submerging villages, ruining farmland and killing livestock…South Sudan is poorly equipped to adjust. Independent since 2011, the country plunged into civil war in 2013. Despite a peace deal in 2018, the government has failed to address numerous crises. Some 2.4 million people remain internally displaced by conflict and flooding. The latest overflowing of the Nile has been blamed on factors including the opening of dams upstream in Uganda after Lake Victoria rose to its highest levels in five years. The century-old Jonglei Canal, which was never completed, has become a refuge for many. AP
38 People Are Dead and over 100 Missing in Congo after a Ferry Capsizes on the Busira River
A ferry overloaded with people returning home for Christmas capsized on the Busira River in northeastern Congo, leaving 38 people confirmed dead and over 100 others missing, officials and eyewitnesses said Saturday. Twenty people have been rescued so far. The sinking of the ferry late Friday came less than four days after another boat capsized in the country’s northeast, killing 25 people…The latest accident prompted anger at the government for not equipping the convoy with flotation devices. Nesty Bonina, a member of the local government and a prominent figure in Mbandaka, the capital of the Equateur province where the ferry sank, condemned authorities for not properly handling the recent sinkings…The capsizing of overloaded boats is becoming increasingly frequent in this central African nation as more people are giving up the few available roads in favor of wooden vessels crumbling under the weight of passengers and their goods for security reasons. The roads are often caught up in the deadly clashes between Congolese security forces and rebels that sometimes block major access routes. AP
Cyclone Chido Kills 94 People in Mozambique
Cyclone Chido has killed 94 people in Mozambique since it made landfall in the east African country last week, local authorities have said. The country’s National Institute of Risk and Disaster Management (INGD) said 768 people were injured and more than 622,000 people affected by the natural disaster in some capacity. Chido hit Mozambique on 15 December with winds of 260 km/h (160mph) and 250mm of rainfall in the first 24 hours. The same cyclone had first wreaked havoc in the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte, before moving on to Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe…Tropical cyclones are characterised by very high wind speeds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, which are short-term rises to sea-levels. This often causes widespread damage and flooding…Assessing the exact influence of climate change on individual tropical cyclones can be challenging due to the complexity of these storm systems. But rising temperatures do affect these storms in measurable ways. The UN’s climate body, the IPCC, previously said there is “high confidence” that humans have contributed to increases in precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, and “medium confidence” that humans have contributed to the higher probability of a tropical cyclone being more intense. BBC
Nigeria Tax Spat Opens Country’s Smouldering North-South Divide
Nigeria’s parliament late last month began deliberating on four bills proposed by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including the so-called “Nigeria Tax Bill”, to streamline tax codes and generate more revenue for a government whose tax collection lags behind its African counterparts. But the proposal on how VAT should be shared among Nigeria’s 36 states and capital city Abuja has become the subject of vociferous debate. The reforms would allow states that generate more VAT — the largest line item Nigeria’s federal government distributes — to receive a larger share of total revenue while reducing the amount allocated by population. Northern states, which are typically more populous, say this will disadvantage them and exacerbate inequality…Poverty and illiteracy rates are higher in Nigeria’s north. Annual GDP per capita is about $292, less than half of the south’s, and 65 per cent of the country’s poorest people live in the north. Currently, 50 per cent of the total VAT distributed to states is shared equally, while 30 per cent is allocated based on population size and 20 per cent by their tax contribution, or derivation. Tinubu now wants 60 per cent to be allocated based on contribution, while cutting the population quota to 20 per cent. Northern lawmakers, including some from Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress, have stalled the bills in parliament amid calls for further dialogue. Financial Times
France Supports Ethiopia’s Quest for Sea Access through Discussion
French President Emmanuel Macron said his country supports Ethiopia’s quest for access to the sea through discussion and respecting international laws and neighboring countries. Macron spoke on Saturday after a one-day visit to Addis Ababa, where he held bilateral talks with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. During a news conference, Macron welcomed the Ankara Declaration reached by the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Federal Republic of Somalia on Dec. 11…In the declaration, brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, “the leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia reaffirmed their respect and commitment to one another’s sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity, as well as the principles enshrined in international law, the Charter of the United Nations and the Constitutive Act of the African Union.” The two sides also agreed to start “technical negotiations” by February on details of Ethiopia’s sea access, and that those negotiations would be facilitated by Turkey and be “concluded and signed” within four months. VOA
Kenya’s Ruto Embraces Rivals to Shore up Support
Kenya’s President William Ruto has incorporated even more opposition figures to his cabinet in a move seen as trying to solidifying his hold on power amidst increasing criticism of his administration…[A]nalysts see the inclusion of the opposition as a strategy to address the unpopularity of his government, especially in the key central Kenya region that has become hostile following the recent impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua as deputy president. Anger at Ruto’s government climaxed in June when momentous anti-tax protests erupted, forcing him to retract a controversial finance bill that included more tax increases…Aware of the potential political consequences of Gachagua’s impeachment ahead of the 2027 elections, Ruto last week visited his Kenyatta at his rural Ichaweri home in central Kiambu county. Although Kenyatta said there was nothing out of the ordinary about the meeting, three of his allies were named in Ruto’s cabinet barely 10 days later…Their nomination is seen as Ruto’s strategy to assuage the region that has become hostile to the president and his allies. The president has hardly visited Mt Kenya since Gachagua was ousted…Ruto has also appointed opposition members to head several state agencies, including the revenue department. BBC
How Women Are Starting to Be Heard on Femicide in Ivory Coast
[Nearly 200 women marched in Grand-Bassam, Ivory Coast, on 10 December, at the end of 16 days of activism against sexual violence.]. The march in Grand-Bassam, the colonial-era capital of Ivory Coast, echoes the first public demonstration by women – in 1949 – when more than 2,000 marched to free their husbands imprisoned by French colonial authorities…During the days leading up to the march, activities across the country included women’s forums with discussions and theatre and a caravan crisscrossing the country to raise awareness of gender-based violence in schools and among the wider public…In 2021, the Ivorian government adopted measures to protect victims of domestic violence, rape and sexual violence in general, including establishing emergency protection orders. It also ended the requirement for a victim to supply medical certificates, and introduced training for gendarmes and police officers on gender-based violence. In September, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ranked Ivory Coast as the leading African country in the fight to end discrimination against women…But many women say there is still a lot to do, including recognising femicide. The Guardian