A Stagnant Transition in Guinea
While not attracting the level of international attention as the Sahelian juntas, Guinea’s military government has taken clear steps to consolidate its hold on power over the past year. This has been accompanied by slow rolling the transitional calendar while crushing dissent. As the transition is delayed, the junta extends its hold over society by placing loyalists at all levels of national and local government. Despite releasing a draft constitution, the junta is now openly admitting that it has no plans to leave power, even when the transition benchmarks are met. In effect, the military is reasserting its long-held role as the sole source of power in Guinea. Besides undermining Guineans’ hard-fought efforts to establish a functional and peaceful democracy, the junta’s intent to hold power indefinitely appears set to amplify food, migration, and security threats that will have implications across the region. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Niger Cuts Ties with Ukraine over Comments on Mali-Wagner Attack
Niger’s junta on Tuesday cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine over remarks from officials it said showed Ukraine’s support for groups involved in fighting in neighbouring Mali that killed dozens of soldiers and Russian Wagner fighters in July. The move follows Mali’s decision on Sunday to sever relations with Kyiv following comments by Ukraine’s military spy agency about the fighting in northern Mali in which Tuareg rebels said they killed at least 84 Wagner mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers…On Monday, Ukraine condemned Mali’s decision to sever relations as short-sighted and hasty, saying Kyiv rejected the allegation of Ukrainian support for international terrorism. The row stems from televised remarks by Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military spy agency, who said that Malian rebels had received the “necessary” information to conduct the attack. Reuters
Terror Groups Poised to Fill Void with US Forces Gone from Niger
Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, also known as JNIM, has become “the most significant threat in the Sahel,” according to a U.N. Sanctions Monitoring Team report released last week. JNIM commands 5,000 to 6,000 fighters, the report said, and “continues to expand, mostly in Burkina Faso, but also significantly in Mali and the Niger.” And while the intelligence suggests JNIM has not given up on striking Western interests in the Sahel, the group’s ability to expand and consolidate territorial gains could put it in position “to establish an emirate from central Mali to northern Benin,” the report warned….The U.N. report warns that IS’s West African Province, also known as ISWAP, “has grown in both importance and capability,” working with IS core leadership to establish terror cells and networks in Nigeria and beyond. Estimates from U.N. member states put the number of ISWAP fighters at between 4,000 and 7,000. But much of their focus has been on supporting Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, or ISGS, with 2,000 to 3,000 fighters seeking to expand beyond their entrenched positions in Mali and the border regions of Burkina Faso and Niger. Making matters more precarious, the U.N. report warned that a tenuous détente (an unofficial agreement) between JNIM and ISGS appears to be holding, “with the continued trend of the groups taking and holding larger areas of contiguous territory in the Sahel.” VOA
Sudan Army Chief to Lead Operations from Omdurman
Sudanese army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan will relocate his headquarters to Omdurman to personally lead military operations, a senior army officer said on Tuesday. Al-Burhan has been based in the eastern city of Port Sudan since leaving the army headquarters in Khartoum last August amidst fighting with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)…The announcement comes ahead of talks scheduled for August 14 in Geneva, mediated by the United States, with Egypt, the United Nations, the African Union, and the UAE participating as observers. Sudan Tribune
Eating Leaves, Knee-Deep in Water: Inside Sudan’s Man-Made Famine
Zamzam and other displacement camps around the Darfur city of El Fasher—set up after the genocide of the early 2000s—are ground zero of a starvation crisis that has swept through Sudan since the start of the war last year. Some 26 million Sudanese, about half the country’s population, are suffering crisis levels of hunger, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, which brings together experts from the United Nations, relief agencies and research groups. Aid groups and the U.S. government say the crisis is entirely man-made. Sudan’s military has closed off all but one official border crossing into Darfur for imports of humanitarian aid, arguing that it needs to stop weapons from reaching its enemy. Relief that does make it into Darfur has been held up by the RSF—a successor force to the Janjaweed fighters that terrorized the region two decades ago—or blocked by the heavy fighting around the city. In recent days and weeks, severe rain has also flooded key access routes to El Fasher, as well as infrastructure inside Zamzam, including latrines, water distribution points and the camp’s malnutrition ward. The Wall Street Journal
Humanitarians Urge Security Council to Stop ‘Freight Train of Suffering’ in Sudan
Two senior UN officials appealed to the Security Council on Tuesday for more resources and greater humanitarian access in Sudan, where people are literally dying of hunger as the war between rival militaries rages on. Edem Wosornu of the UN humanitarian affairs office, OCHA, and Stephen Omollo, Assistant Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP), briefed ambassadors in the wake of the recent confirmation of famine in the Zamzam displacement camp, home to 500,000 people…A staggering 26 million people are facing acute hunger, which Ms. Wosornu said is equivalent to “New York times three – full of starving families and malnourished children.” More than 10 million people have been forced to flee their homes, including some 726,000 displaced from Sennar state following recent RSF advances. UN News
Nigeria Detains Tailors Who Made Russian Flags for Anti-government Protests
Nigeria has detained some tailors for making Russian flags that were waved during anti-government protests this week in northern states, the state secret police said, in a move that underscores concerns about increased Russian activity in western Africa. The Department of State Services (DSS) also said in a post on X that it had detained some of the tailors’ “sponsors”, without elaborating. It said an investigation was ongoing. It did not say how many tailors or “sponsors” had been detained. Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, described the brandishing of a foreign flag during anti-government protests as a “treasonable offence” after he held security talks with President Bola Tinubu on Monday…In the northern states of Borno, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, protesters were seen waving hundreds of Russian flags with some calling for a military takeover. Reuters
Somali Police Seize Hundreds of Veils amid Security Fears
Security forces in Somalia’s southern city of Kismayo have seized hundreds of Islamic face veils from female residents, the city’s police chief says…The crackdown was sparked by concerns that jihadists could conceal their identity and carry out attacks, Mr Warsame said…On Friday dozens were killed in an attack at a popular beachfront location in Mogadishu, the capital. Officers in Kismayo have been confiscating the veils by stopping women in the streets and forcing them to remove the garment. The operation began last Wednesday, Mr Wasame said. Women caught wearing the niqab, which covers the whole face expect for the eyes, also face jail or a fine. Because al-Shabab controls much of southern Somalia, Kismayo and its surrounding areas are the only places in the state of Jubaland where authorities can enforce the ban. The state initially introduced the niqab ban in 2013, citing security risks, but it was rarely enforced. BBC
US to Give $414 Mln in Humanitarian Aid for Congo
The U.S. said on Wednesday it would provide nearly $414 million in humanitarian assistance for the Democratic Republic of Congo, where more than 25 million people need such aid, nearly a quarter of the country’s population. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture, Jeffrey Prescott, told Reuters a significant amount of that money would go to United Nations agencies and aid groups providing urgent food assistance, healthcare and nutrition support, shelter, water, sanitation and hygiene…Congo’s army has been battling M23 insurgents since 2022, and renewed fighting in the country’s east has driven more than 1.7 million people from their homes, taking the total number of Congolese displaced by multiple conflicts to a record 7.2 million, according to U.N. estimates.
UN Agency Raises just 20% of Needed Southern Africa Drought Aid in Tough Funding Environment
Southern Africa is experiencing its worst drought in decades, forcing Zambia, Malawi and Zimbabwe to declare states of disaster. The drought was a result of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which can change world weather patterns, bring extreme seasonal temperatures, rainfall or dry spells and hurt crop yields. About 70% of the Southern African population that relies on rain-fed agriculture had their harvests “wiped out” by lack of rains, [World Food Programme spokesperson Thomas Phiri] told Reuters in May. The WFP aims to use the proceeds raised so far to feed 5.9 million out of 27 million in the region who are food-insecure until the next harvest season in 2025, and had started sourcing white grain from Tanzania, South Africa and Latin America to feed regional communities. Despite notable donor support, current food needs were “exceptionally high and outpacing available resources,” during a historical drought, Phiri said. Some donors have had to trim their aid budgets and “people in places such as southern Africa are now facing a double whammy where they are reeling both from the historic drought and severe funding cuts,” he said. Reuters
Joy and Relief as South Africa Manages to Keep Its Lights On
Load-shedding began in 2007, reaching a low last year with power cuts often lasting more than half a day. This year it was expected to get worse. But now there has been no load-shedding for more than four months – the longest break in more than four years. How has the turnaround happened, and will power cuts return? It is largely because of a set of programmes from the state-owned power provider Eskom and the government over the last two years. In July 2022 President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the Energy Action Plan, and the following February he declared a national state of disaster over the electricity crisis. Soon after he created the role of electricity minister, appointing Kgosientsho Ramokgopa. And then Eskom launched the two-year Generation Operational Recovery Plan, the key aim of which was to increase the amount of power – known as the “Energy Availability Factor” (EAF) – to 70% of the network’s potential. At the same time Eskom overhauled its leadership, which most point to as a crucial factor…Another significant move last year was a 254bn rand ($14bn; £10.9bn) debt-relief package from the treasury to plug Eskom’s financial blackhole. As a result there has been a substantial reduction in unplanned outages at Eskom’s power stations, that had been caused by break downs in units. This in turn meant that a programme of planned maintenance could be carried out…Sluggish economic growth has also led to less upward pressure on the demand for power. BBC
The Orphaned Refugee Planning to Make Olympic History
[25-year-old Dominic Lobalu] was ruled out of the Tokyo 2020 Games after claiming asylum in Switzerland, making him ineligible to compete for refugee teams. After being given clearance by World Athletics to represent his adopted nation in May – despite not holding Swiss citizenship – Lobalu won two medals at the the European Championships the following month. His gold in the 10,000m and bronze in the 5,000m persuaded the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to invite Lobalu to join its Refugee Olympic Team, and the South Sudanese-born runner will compete over the shorter distance in the French capital…In 2015, Lobalu competed barefoot in a 10km race at the [Kakuma Refugee Camp] which was organised by famed Kenyan runner Tegla Loroupe. The teenager finished second and Loroupe, a two-time winner of the New York Marathon, invited Lobalu to join a training camp at her foundation on the outskirts of Nairobi. Two years later, just shy of his 19th birthday, Lobalu competed in the heats of the 1500m at the 2017 World Championships in London. BBC