Stakeholders of Libya’s February 17 Revolution
By Susanne Tarkowski Templehof and Manal Omar. United States Institute of Peace, January 2012. Post-Qadhafi Libya is split along old ethnic lines and new cracks from competing experiences during the revolution. Community education about democratization and post-conflict challenges are key to manage expectations and avoid post-revolution disillusionment. Failure to manage such frustrations could motivate already disgruntled groups, like the February 17th Youth Movement and the Tuareg, Tubu and Berber groups of the south, to rekindle simmering conflicts. The grievances of southern groups in particular should be addressed, as they can destabilize not only Libya but its neighbors as well. Download the article: [PDF]Libyan Islamists Unpacked: Rise, Transformation, and Future
By Omar Ashour. Brookings Doha Center, May 2012. Multiple, diverse Islamist influences are shaping post-Qadhafi Libya. These include the Muslim Brotherhood, which emulates the moderate, political party model of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood; the Libyan Islamic Movement for Change, formerly a violent anti-Gaddafi militia; and an amorphous Salafi movement which has long been nonviolent but lacks organization. Although certain Libyan Islamists fought in Algeria, Afghanistan, and Chechnya, this experience strengthened the dedication of many to a peaceful political process in Libya. Overall their experiences with al Qaeda and AQIM have not been positive and most seek to be inclusive and gain legitimacy both nationally and internationally. Download the article: [PDF]Libya: Post-War Challenges
By African Development Bank, September 2011.
The replacement of the Qadhafi regime in Libya will not eliminate the patterns of patronage in existence since 1969. Only an integrated and systemic interweaving of various social, political, legal, and economic initiatives can prevent backsliding to authoritarianism. The key to success will be political governance matched by economic reconstruction and by legitimacy for those in charge of the post-conflict governing structures. Download the Article: [PDF]New Libya: Political Transition and the Role of the West
By Roland Popp and Daniel Möckli. Center for Security Studies, September 2011.
While Libya may experience a high level of instability in the absence of Muammar Gaddafi’s authoritarian grip, the work of an inclusive transitional administration and targeted support from Western actors could bring about a successful transition to democracy. Restoring public security and centralized national authority throughout Libya present the greatest challenges. Integrating tribes who supported Gaddafi and former regime members into the transition is a fundamental prerequisite for stability and a free and democratic order. Download the Article: [PDF]
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