Libya: Post-War Challenges
African Development Bank, September 2011. Picture: http://www.irinnews.org/photo/Details.aspx?ImageID=201112090751260812 The replacement of the Qadhafi regime in Libya will not eliminate the patterns of patronage in existence since 1969. Only an integrated and systemic interweaving of various social, political, legal, and economic initiatives can prevent backsliding to authoritarianism. The key to success will be political governance matched by economic reconstruction and by legitimacy for those in charge of the post-conflict governing structures. Download the Article: [PDF]New Libya: Political Transition and the Role of the West
By Roland Popp and Daniel Möckli. Center for Security Studies, September 2011. Picture: http://www.irinnews.org/photo/Details.aspx?ImageID=201105110930420735 While Libya may experience a high level of instability in the absence of Muammar Gaddafi’s authoritarian grip, the work of an inclusive transitional administration and targeted support from Western actors could bring about a successful transition to democracy. Restoring public security and centralized national authority throughout Libya present the greatest challenges. Integrating tribes who supported Gaddafi and former regime members into the transition is a fundamental prerequisite for stability and a free and democratic order. Download the Article: [PDF]Extending Libya‘s Transitional Period: Capitalizing on the Constitutional Moment
By Jason Gluck. United States Institute of Peace, September 2011 A rapid timeline for Libya’s transition may create challenges for the interim government and hinder the development of a new constitutional order. Extending Libya’s transitional period to allow for a more inclusive and participatory process will better support the country’s transformation toward a constitutional democracy. Meaningful public participation in creating a constitution can transform the process from an elite-driven exercise into a national dialogue and stimulate reconciliation among political forces and communities. Download the Article: [PDF]After Gaddafi
By George Joffé. European Union Institute for Security Studies, April 2011. Tribal and religious groups as well as loose associations of political insiders, diplomats, exiles, and prominent defectors have been asserting increasing influence in Libya as the tightly controlled regime of Muammar Gaddafi has seen its power sharply ebb. The growing independence of these groups and civil society entities will play a primary role in shaping whether and how a new pluralistic government replaces the regime or battle lines harden into a protracted civil conflict. Download the Article: [PDF]Dangerous Fallout from Libya's Implosion
By Christopher Boucek. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 2011. Numerous Islamist militants, some battle-hardened in Iraq or Afghanistan, have been released from detention amid the chaotic fighting in Libya. Revitalizing jihadist rehabilitation programs and ensuring political space for peaceful Islamists should be priorities for the political structure that emerges from the fighting in Libya so as to limit the threat posed by the many dangerous militants now operating freely in the country. Download the Article: [HTML]
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