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The highly controlled constitutional referendum organized by Mahamat Déby’s military junta appears intended to provide a degree of credibility to the military’s plans to hold power indefinitely.
The longer the conflict in Sudan endures, the greater the likelihood that regional actors will sponsor rival proxy forces, accelerating the fragmentation of the armed actors on the ground and fueling a spillover of the conflict into an already highly fragile regional environment.
TICAD’s bottom-up, multisectoral, and co-partnership approach is welcome in Africa and offers a model for the value of long-term partnerships to strengthen development, peace, and security.
Idriss Déby’s death is an outcome of the ongoing instability perpetuated by his regime. The subsequent military coup d’état led by the late president’s son risks deepening political violence in this geographically strategic country.
The main tools Russia relies on to assert influence on the continent—mercenaries, arms for resource deals, coopting and sustaining friendly leaders, and disinformation—are inherently destabilizing. While opportunistic, this approach provides Russia an opening to secure port access in the eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea while undermining democratic norms in the region, advancing the Kremlin’s geostrategic interests.
Climate change is straining livelihoods across broad swaths of Africa, intensifying instability in multifaceted ways. The continent’s ability to adapt to and mitigate these effects will have global repercussions.
The lack of legitimacy and accountability are at the root of many of Africa’s armed conflicts, reflecting an inability of these political systems to accommodate participation, contestation, and power-sharing.
Researchers interviewed MINUSCA officials and more than 200 residents of four areas of the Central African Republic. Each locality provided a snapshot of residents’ impressions of the UN mission, the role of the state in providing security, the legitimacy of rebel groups and militias, and a lasting solution for peace. Respondents from unstable areas where UN peacekeepers are present wish to see MINUSCA exit and allow state armed forces to provide security. The vast majority of interviewees condemned the rebels—as well as anti-balaka forces—who they cite as the source of local instability. Little alignment exists between the framework of the Khartoum Agreement and citizens’ desires.
Surveys and interviews conducted in South Kivu examine the roles of the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC), MONUSCO, as well as NGOs and local militias in facilitating lasting peace. While MONUSCO has assisted the FARDC in stemming the militia threat, Congolese do not see a future for the mission in their communities and express frustration at what they perceive as inadequate responses to their security concerns. Many in conflict-stricken areas see the state as the principal security provider, despite considerable reservations about the FARDC. Phasing out MONUSCO and ensuring continued decentralization through local elections would strengthen the legitimacy of the state and its security forces and promote accountable governance.
This climate-fragility risk assessment identifies the key drivers for future conflict drawing on hydrological data, satellite observations, and interviews across Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger. Dramatic changes in temperature and growing population density have added strain to the areas surrounding Lake Chad. Clearer land rights that allow farmers, fishermen, and pastoralists to use the same land would improve efficiency and reduce the risk of exacerbating conflict.
Joseph Kabila seeks to maintain the status quo as the Democratic Republic of the Congo enters a transition amid growing instability.
A heavy-handed response to peaceful protests have become a test of Cameroonian identity as a multi-cultural state and set the country on the slippery slope of prolonged conflict.