Africa Center for Strategic Studies

By Afrobarometer, December 2010. Zimbabweans continue to fear the political process in their country. According to surveys, substantial majorities support elections, but diminishing numbers believe they will be free and fair or that their new electoral commission is effective and independent. Moreover, growing numbers refuse to disclose their political party affiliation and continue to express concerns about the level of political violence in their country. Left unaddressed, these issues will complicate a forthcoming constitutional referendum and other preparations necessary to hold future national elections. Download the Article: [PDF]

By Robert I. Rotberg.  Center for Strategic & International Studies, August 2011. Picture: http://www.irinnews.org/photo/Details.aspx?ImageID=2007111411 South Africa and many other Southern African Development Community (SADC) members no longer regard Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe as indispensable, presenting new opportunities to enhance the likelihood of a sustainable democratic transition. International partners should reinvigorate their engagement and work closely with South Africa and SADC to strengthen progressive opposition forces in the government and moderate members of the ruling party in Zimbabwe. Additional useful options include referring Mugabe and regime leaders to the International Criminal Court and completing an election road map. Download the Article: [PDF]

By Cheryl Hendricks and Lauren Hutton. Institute for Security Studies, 2009. Through years of intensifying politicization and a unique historical development, the security sector in Zimbabwe has become firmly entrenched in the current regime and developed a vested interest in its continuity. With the emergence of a new unity government following national elections in 2008, however, two analysts from the Institute for Security Studies sound an open call for Zimbabwe's impending security sector reform challenge. SSR in Zimbabwe will be unique; existing security institutions function and need only transformation rather than whole-scale construction. Given current tenuous and tense political conditions, security sector reform will need to first take a long view and avoid destabilizing measures that may prompt a coup. Ultimately, SSR may be delayed in deference to other strategic accommodations to political pressures, these authors caution. Download the Article: [HTML]

By Stephanie Hanson. Council on Foreign Relations, 2008. Zimbabwe seems to teeter at the edge of instability, and the rapidly expanding politicization of the security sector is further undermining civil-military relations, military professionalism, and the structure of the state. According to this backgrounder from the Council on Foreign Relations, leading military officials and officers have been ceded control of key aspects of the economy, and represent the ruling party in negotiations with the opposition. Loyalty within and between the services has also suffered. Poor morale in the lower ranks threatens command and control and the intelligence services and army continue to battle for control of several government offices. These disturbing developments substantially elevate Zimbabwe's "securocrats" as critical points of influence in the country's uncertain future, the piece concludes. Download the Article: [HTML]