Historically variable rainfalls in the Sahel region are expected to worsen under some climate change models, increasing the possibilities of droughts and other pressures that prompt community vulnerability, displacement, and fragility. However, analysis of the region has found no deterministic relation between environment and security dynamics. Environmental variables are of secondary influence compared to political, historical, and economic variables. Rather, addressing the impacts of climate change requires adjustments in national and regional development strategies that prepare for uncertainty, diversify livelihood opportunities, and include the input of communities most affected.
