By George Joffé. European Union Institute for Security Studies, April 2011.
Tribal and religious groups as well as loose associations of political insiders, diplomats, exiles, and prominent defectors have been asserting increasing influence in Libya as the tightly controlled regime of Muammar Gaddafi has seen its power sharply ebb. The growing independence of these groups and civil society entities will play a primary role in shaping whether and how a new pluralistic government replaces the regime or battle lines harden into a protracted civil conflict.
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